Postseason: A Matter of Time
It's playoff time in the Cuban National Series! So obviously we'll have a lot to talk about over the next three or four weeks, weather permitting.
Let's start today with an analysis of what happened in the opening of the Quarterfinal playoffs.
Pinar del Río 8, Sancti Spíritus 0
There is something I love in baseball and that is when I see the playing time in the Box Score. Usually, the average time of a game in Cuban baseball usually exceeds 3 hours. It catches my attention to see the time of a game because, almost always, pitching duels tend to be fast.
Either way, the interesting point here is that we can quantify the length of a game, but that record won't always lead us to how it was decided. What was the key moment? Was it at the beginning or the end? What play changed everything? Of course, we almost always end up remembering that baseball is unpredictable.
You know how a game begins, but never how it will end. There are quick games that are boring, with almost nothing interesting to attract attention. There are also almost endless games, and they are still enjoyable, because they are loaded with exciting moments.
Those were part of my thoughts during the first four innings this Thursday in Game 1 of the Quarterfinal series between Pinar del Río and Sancti Spíritus. From the beginning of the game, I think the main expectation was to see when Pinar del Río's great offensive would break out against the Sancti Spíritus pitchers. I have no doubt that the Gallos will fight until the end, but the Vegueros' potential is greater.
So it all seemed like a matter of time. And the game showed it after three scoreless innings at the busy Capitan San Luis park. The Gallos had opportunities to get ahead on the scoreboard, but one of their main deficiencies occurred during the beginning of the fourth inning: they loaded the bases and the RBI hit never appeared.
Sancti Spíritus hit .237 with runners in scoring position during the regular season, the 12th worst average in the league. This was the situation: The legendary Frederich Cepeda opened the inning with a double (hitting the first pitch), and Alexis Varona walked. After one out, Duniesky Barroso singled to right—yes, maybe another runner instead of the veteran Cepeda would have scored from second—to load the bases.
After 13 ⅓ consecutive innings without allowing runs against the Gallos this year, left-hander from Pinar del Río Branlis Rodríguez once again imposed his dominance: on a 2-2 count he struck out Daniel Jesús González, who was left looking at a 76 mph curveball that rotated towards the outside corner. And, four pitches later, Branlis repeated the dose to strike out Yadiel Guerra with another curveball.
I really don't think we should call that fourth inning “the key inning” for the Gallos, but if they had taken advantage of their opportunities with runners in scoring position, perhaps the fate would have been different. Instead, they failed to score, and Pinar del Río took the lead in the bottom of the fourth inning against left-hander Yohannys Hernández.
A throwing error by shortstop Rodolexis Moreno with two outs opened the plate doors for Jorge Yoan Rojas, who started the inning by hitting a single to center. Once again, defensive lapses cost the Gallos runs, who ended up leading the league with 22% dirty runs allowed—the rest of the teams averaged just 15%, and none surpassed 20%.
At the end of the fifth inning, a fielding error by third baseman Lázaro Fernández allowed Alexei Ramírez to reach first base safely. With one out and two runners on base, William Saavedra came to the plate for the third time in the afternoon. Saavedra had failed in his first two at-bats with runners on base. So, obviously, the game situation was a key moment for left-hander Yohannys Hernández, who came with the history of having beaten Pinar del Río in the regular season.
Gallos pitching coach Freddy González quickly came out to advise Hernández. The fans stood up, calling for a home run from Saavedra. There were countless followers who were trying to capture the emotions of the moment.
Hernández began the matchup against Saavedra by throwing a low fastball, outside the strike zone. Saavedra just stared at the launch path. He seemed confident that the 83-mph fastball would never again surpass his swinging prowess. The second pitch was a low, punchy curveball, just 75 mph.
At a 2-0 count, Saavedra hit a foul ball after hauling in another hit curveball. And then came the decisive throw. Hernández's offering was another hit curveball, but this time Saavedra pulled at his ease: he hit a fly ball deep into left field, and the Vegueros fans went crazy.
It was known that the hit was a home run since he came out:
For Saavedra, it was his 26th home run in the Cuban baseball playoffs, a record that places him one behind the all-time leader, another hitter from Pinar del Río, Omar Linares (27). “El Niño” Linares needed 100 games and 430 plate appearances, while Saavedra reached his 80th game and 326th PA. Before the home run, Saavedra already owned multiple offensive categories in postseason history, so the highlights they are just beginning:
(Leading hitters with at least 200 PA in playoffs)
SLUGGING: .633
ISO: .315
PA/HR: 12.9
When Saavedra had not finished greeting his teammates in front of the third-string dugout, Yasser Julio González crunched another pitch from Hernández and hit a home run deep into center field.
Back-to-back!
Pinar del Río 5, Sancti Spíritus 0. As it was felt from the beginning, it was a matter of time. The expected offensive impact of the Vegueros appeared at the end of the fifth inning and practically decided the game. Hopelessness invaded the faces of the Sancti Spíritus players. Two swings changed the course of the game in the blink of an eye.*
*Yasser Julio's home run was his fourth this season against the Gallos, and Pinar del Río's ninth in six games.
In the bottom of the eighth, Saavedra drove in two more runs to register five in the game, and Lázaro Emilio Blanco singled to extend Pinar del Río's lead to 8-0.
Branlis Rodríguez pitched 6 ⅔ scoreless innings and extended his streak to 16 ⅔ IP with 11 strikeouts against Sancti Spíritus hitters. In the end, the Gallos carried just one runner to third base the rest of the game, and went 0 for 10 with men in scoring position. That poor performance was notable, but here's a number that could define this Quarterfinal series: Sancti Spíritus pitchers did not strike out any of their 42 opponents in Game 1.
The most successful pitching staff without strikeout pitchers was the Tigres de Ciego de Ávila, who were crowned champions in 2016: they finished with a record of 8-3 in 11 games, and a rate of 3.7 K/9 (41 K and 39 BB in 100 innings). In the history of the National Series there has not been a championship team with a pitching staff that has recorded fewer strikeouts.
The ability to put the ball in play was the main key to success in Pinar del Río's offense: they were first in HR% (3.4) with runners on base during the regular season, and the team that struck out the least (10 K% ). The numbers speak for themselves. Teams without weapons to strike out this Pinar del Río lineup will hardly be able to beat them.
Santiago de Cuba 6, Industriales 4
To aspire to win in these playoffs, there are several keys that Industriales will need:
1) Seek as much success as possible in the opening of right-hander Andy Vargas, the starting pitcher who offers the greatest probability of victory in the rotation.
2) Get the key hits with the offensive support of your main hitters. By their rank: Yasmany Tomás, Yasiel Santoya, Oscar Valdés, Alfredo Rodríguez, and the fast Alberto Calderón, Ángel Alfredo Hechevarría, Ariel Hechevarría and Roberto Álvarez. Usually, they have all the pressure and balance in the Blues' lineup.
3) Support pitching with good defensive work, including insisting that pitchers help prevent stolen bases.
4) Throw strikes, and avoid as many walks as possible.
5) Throw strikes, and avoid as many walks as possible.
In my opinion, point No. 4 is usually repeated, because it is usually one of the ones that causes the Industriales launchers to explode. Avoiding walks and unfavorable counts has been the great challenge for Industriales' young pitching throughout the year. Those trends did not change this Thursday in Game 1 of the Quarterfinal series between Industriales and Santiago de Cuba.
Yes, the duel ended with a sensational walk-off home run by designated hitter Harold Vázquez, who destroyed a curveball by right-hander Leodán Reyes in the bottom of the ninth inning. The closing of the game was as unexpected as it was spectacular in front of the great fans that filled the Guillermón Moncada stadium. Vázquez had been a sure out all night: he was 0-for-4 with a strikeout and two ground balls to the infield. He barely hit hard (the best hit he hit was a fly out to right field with bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the fifth). His swing was either far behind or ahead.
When Vázquez came to the plate after Eduardo García's double with one out in the bottom of the ninth inning, catcher Oscar Valdés quickly looked to the dugout. From his signs, he seemed to ask if it was an option to intentionally walk Vázquez.
The answer was “no”. Manager Guillermo Carmona preferred that Reyes face Vázquez with a runner on second, instead of pitching against Euclides Pérez with two men on base and the possibility of playing into a double play. In baseball, almost everything makes sense, but the result is sometimes overwhelming: Vázquez hit the curveball—a few inches below the zone where García had hit the double with one out—and the game suddenly ended.
Leodán Reyes threw his most vulnerable pitch of the entire night on a 2-2 count, after seeing Vázquez struggle against his fastball.
You literally know the game is over. But when you analyze everything that happened to get to the ninth inning with the score tied 4-4, some more reflections arise. There are three of them that were key:
1) Industriales went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position.
2) The defense made inaccuracies at key moments, and:
3) Two of the four walks they threw cost them runs. The two walks that Francisco Martínez recorded against Andy Vargas ended in runs scored.
There was the final difference on the scoreboard, not to mention that the Industriales offense scored only one run after the fourth inning.
The displays of power by Ángel Alfredo Hechevarría (he hit 2-for-4 and drove in two runs with a solo home run and triple) and Yasmany Tomás (hit a two-run home run in the fourth inning) seemed to boost the Blues' offense, but the production was shut down. Industriales could not put together a rally again: in four of their last five innings they failed to get the first batter on base.
Dany Betancourt did the job the Avispas were hoping for to avoid a bullpen rush in Game 1. And then Osvaldo Acuña took care of closing it out, allowing no hits over the final two innings.
Again, I reveal to you what my favorite number of the night was: Danny Betancourt and Osvaldo Acuña combined to face 37 opponents and, yes: they did not give away walks.
On offense, the Avispas achieved the objective: leadoff Francisco Martínez reached base three times, stole a base and scored two runs. Luis Orlando Veranes hit a double that fueled the attack in the bottom of the seventh.
Adriel Labrada drove in two decisive runs as the third hitter (replacing Yoelquis Guibert). Eduardo García contributed a crucial double in the ninth. Euclides Pérez went 2 for 3 with a double (he could have hit another, but he looked at the hit instead of running), and Alexander Llanes went 2 for 3 with an RBI double that opened the score 1-0 in the second inning.
The only failed points in the Avispas' offense were Reinier Castillo (0-for-4) and Maikol Poll (0-for-3) in the low round. Santiago de Cuba had 11 hits, and five of them were extra bases. This could mean a serious problem for the Industriales rotation, which will need Rafael Orlando Perdomo's best start all season.