Back home
As the end of the regular season nears, say, the last 15 games, I used to evaluate the performances of eliminated teams against those still looking to make the postseason.
In numbers, the results were probably not as striking as what could be seen in the attitude of the teams with no chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
Although some teams seemed to give up after posting a losing season, others were still looking to win as many games as possible. They simply competed, although whatever the outcome, the teams would be on their way home. That is precisely what the Cienfuegos Elephants and the Holguín Cubs have done during this midweek. Cienfuegos defeated Ciego de Ávila in two of three games, and this Friday Holguín knocked out Matanzas 19-7.
The Cubs had at least 23 hits in a game for the fourth time in the history of the National Series, and two of them have been against teams from Matanzas. In fact, the first time was more than 23 years ago, on the night of Saturday, March 10, 2001, during an 18-5 knockout success at the Victoria de Girón stadium. This season's Cubs hit 10 extra bases, with nine doubles—four by Edilse Silva—and a home run by cleanup hitter Yasiel Andy González.
The 2001 team also hit 10 extra bases, but with four doubles, two triples and four home runs. Ordanis Duboys led the attack hitting 5-for-6 (two home runs) and drove in five runs as a leadoff. Edilse Silva was the most productive hitter this Friday: he hit 4-for-5, all of his hits were doubles, and he scored and drove in four runs. Juan Rondón, former champion third baseman in 2002 and current third base coach of the Cubs, went 3-for-4 in that 2001 game, with two doubles and an RBI.
With this Friday's victory, the Cubs took a 2-1 lead in the series against the Crocodiles, who are fighting to qualify for the postseason. On the other hand, whatever the result, Holguín has 10 games left to finish the regular season and return home. They are 24-41, and will enter this weekend in 15th place in the standings.
I think that despite starting the season with 18 rookies under first-time manager Lugdis Pineda, these Cubs had the potential to have played at a higher level than we've seen this year. If we analyze their 41 losses, there is a trend that could summarize where the team's inconsistency has been: they have lost 21 of their 41 games by a difference between one and three runs.
Yes, that means 51.2% of the defeats, which indicates a terrible impact. The Cubs' 11-21 record in games decided by one to three runs has been the worst in the entire league. Either way, that's not the worst news here, but that the Cubs are heading into their 15th consecutive season without qualifying for the postseason. Although this may surprise you, that is the worst active streak, even surpassing the Guantánamo Indians, who are trying to avoid their 13th season without reaching the promised land.
Although the Cubs had plenty of opportunities to change that story, their 65-game regular season has led to this collective debacle:
—They have the worst batting average (.261) in the league, and rank 15th in on-base percentage (.356), slugging percentage (.354) and OPS (.710). You probably noticed it, right?: Holguín's OBP exceeds the slugging percentage by .002 thousandths. This offensive chaos had not happened since the 56th National Series, when the team ended up producing .423 OBP, .064 points more than the slugging percentage of .359. The other problem here is that Holguín is the team with the 13th highest strikeout rate (12.4%) among 16 teams, and the 11th in walks (10.5%).
—Now I'm wondering what these Cubs' run-scoring prospects would have been like if they had posted a better on-base percentage. The reason for my question? Holguín runners lead the league in stolen bases (54) and stolen base percentage (65.9%). 36% of those steals have been by rookie Juan Christian Onofre, who stole 12 consecutive bases. Onofre currently has 19 steals in 22 attempts, and is just two away from tying the record for stolen bases for rookies, still held by Reinaldo Isasi (stole 21 bases with Matanzas in the 7th National Series) and Rigoberto Estrada (stole 21 bases with Matanzas in the 8th National Series).
—The Cubs rotation is 14th in ERA (5.58), combined with the 12th lowest strikeout rate (4.6), and fourth highest in walks (4.9). The results of that less than dominant combination? Holguin has allowed the third-highest on-base percentage (.397) this season.
The Cubs' best collective performance has been their defense. Currently, they are fielding for a .975 average, the second-highest percentage in the league, but 66% of their 62 errors have cost them runs.
The Cubs have two games left as a home club on their visit to Matanzas, and then they will end up returning home to play five games against Sancti Spíritus and three against Villa Clara.
If they play at a higher level than they have all regular season, the Cubs will likely end up in a better position. And, even if this time they fail to break their drought of 15 consecutive seasons without reaching the playoffs, at least they could enjoy a less distressing return home.
