Clearing up doubts

The Dodgers are ahead in the NLCS—Walker Buehler is back in charge.

For many reasons, the announcement of Walker Buehler as the Dodgers' starter to face the Mets in Game 3 of the NLCS raised some questions. In his only start this postseason, Buehler had allowed six runs in Game 3 of the NLDS against the San Diego Padres. All of the runs came in the bottom of the second inning, including a Fernando Tatis Jr. bomb that shook Petco Park. But the concerns about Buehler's effectiveness go far beyond that.

After recovering from two Tommy John surgeries and hip discomfort, Buehler struggled on the mound during his return to the Dodgers' rotation this year. After his debut on May 6 against the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium, Buehler allowed 11 home runs in his first 10 starts. He pitched 1-4 in that span, allowing a 6.09 ERA and .923 OPS. Coping with that shocking comeback was a complicated process.

Nothing was the same for Buehler. His fastball, which averaged 98.3 mph in 2017, had fallen to 95 mph. In 2019, at age 24, Buehler recorded 215 strikeouts in 182 ⅓ innings with the Dodgers (10.9 SO/9). 48% of those strikeouts were on his four-seam fastball. The league averaged a disconcerting .215. But in 2024, against the 29-year-old Buehler with two seasons lost to his surgeries, hitters indulged in a .342 average. They also hit his knuckle curve harder, slugging .481. In 2021, the year before Buehler faced his first arm injury, the league averaged just a .299 slugging percentage against his knuckle curveball.

In his next six starts, his last during the regular season, Buehler improved his ERA from 6.09 to 4.35. He struck out 29 batters in 31 innings, allowed just five home runs and saw his opponents' OPS drop to .770. Either way, it was clear that Buehler's confidence in challenging hitters with his fastball was no longer what it was. But he also had to work on his stuff, to make a significant new change to his pitch mix.

First, Buehler had to adjust to the potential of his new weapons, then begin the process of regaining his confidence. The Dodgers followed up, and more importantly, they are still confident in his recovery.

We're in an era of modern baseball where sometimes small feats seem to be magnified, like highlighting a four-inning start in a playoff series. But Walker Buehler's performance deserved all the credit tonight against the Mets at Citi Field. Buehler did the job the Dodgers expected: He pitched four scoreless innings, allowed just three hits (two of them inside the infield), and held the Mets' inspired lineup in check just enough while the Dodgers' hitters did the rest of the work.

Buehler left the game in the hands of the bullpen as the Dodgers took an early 2-0 lead against Luis Severino. The Mets were unable to hit the rest of the way. Masterful management by manager Dave Roberts allowed the Dodgers bullpen to lead an 8-0 victory to take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS.

For the Dodgers, it was their fourth shutout of the postseason, having previously pitched shutouts in Games 4 (8-0) and 5 (2-0) of the NLDS and Game 1 (9-0) of the NLCS. The Dodgers became the eighth club to record at least four shutouts in a postseason, joining the 2021 Braves (4 shutouts); the 2020 Braves (4 SHO); the 2016 Indians (5 SHO); the 2012 Giants (4 SHO); the 2010 Giants (4 SHO); the 1998 Yankees (4 SHO); and the 1905 Giants (4 SHO). There are several World Series champions on that list!

With the home run trio of Kiké Hernández, Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy, the Dodgers reached 13 home runs, the most of any club this postseason. I'll devote a few words later to Kiké Hernández's amazing postseason swing, Ohtani's absurd streak with runners in scoring position and Muncy's legacy as a Dodger.

The Dodgers' home runs have been key throughout the postseason. 53% of the team's 43 runs scored have come on homers. But now I want to get back to Buehler, who I thought provided great inspiration with his four-inning start on Wednesday. To start, it should be said that Buehler struggled in every inning. He threw a total of 90 pitches, which brings us to an average of 22.5 pitches per inning. Buehler threw 60% of those 90 pitches between the second and third innings. That was 54 pitches against 11 batters.

The Mets left five runners on base in those two innings, including the bases loaded in the bottom of the second inning. But let's go back to the beginning to look back at Buehler's dominance. In the first inning, he made a big impression with his stuff. Buehler started by challenging Francisco Lindor with a 95 mph fastball on a 2-0 count. Lindor hit a fly ball that Kiké Hernández caught 371 feet from the plate.

Then he attacked Mark Vientos by mixing in his knuckle curve. On a 3-2 count, it looked like Vientos was waiting for another breaking pitch, but Buehler surprised with a cutter on the outside corner. Winds couldn't avoid a horrible swing and miss. Brandon Nimmo, swinging with permission, singled down the third base line. With two outs, Pete Alonso came to the plate and the Mets fans went wild.

After a ball (sweeper on the outside corner), it looked like Alonso was getting ready to crush the next sweeper. He didn't swing at any of the first three pitches. Buehler was bold and challenging at the same time, and you could tell he was comfortable with all of his pitches. He threw the sweeper and Alonso swung badly. When the count reached 3-2, Alonso chased a cutter. He fouled it off. But then Buehler induced another swing and miss, and Alonso struck out chasing another sweeper.

The second inning was probably the big inning the Mets could never get back. The Dodgers had taken a 2-0 lead against Luis Severino in a disastrous error-filled inning that we'll get to in a few minutes. Buehler allowed a single and walked two. The Mets had a chance to start another ambush, but the key hit never came. Buehler struck out Francisco Alvarez and Lindor with the bases loaded. You have to see how he got into the mind of Alvarez, who didn't swing at the last four pitches of the at-bat.

And then, well, then Buehler got the biggest out of all, striking out Lindor. No, it wasn't his old fastball. Not a sweeper. Buehler got the big strikeout with his new style. He threw seven pitches against Lindor, four of them knuckle curves. This was the last pitch of the at-bat:

Buehler threw 32 pitches in that second inning, 50% of them balls, but he managed to get out of trouble and maintain the Dodgers' 2-0 lead. In the next inning he struck out J. D. Martinez with another elite sweeper. The fourth inning was a 1-2-3 inning and just 17 pitches. Buehler finished his performance by striking out Francisco Alvarez for the second time that night.

The Mets had opportunities, they got six of their first 14 batters on base, but they couldn't produce runs. And the most surprising thing was Buehler's adjustment, who ended up striking out six opponents. He got half of the outs with strikeouts. All of Buehler's pitches elicited at least one swing-and-miss from Mets hitters:

Whiffs/Swings

• 3-for-8 vs 4-Seam Fastball

• 6-for-9 vs Sweeper

• 6-for-7 vs Knuckle Curve

• 2-for-6 vs Cutter

• 1-for-4 vs Sinker

---

That brings the Mets' record to 18 swings-and-misses in the 36 swings they took against Buehler's pitches. And, yes, that 53% swing-and-miss rate has been the second-highest mark induced by a pitcher this postseason:

Highest Whiff Rates Before NLCS Game 3

1. Wheeler, Zack RHP, 30 whiffs/55 swings, 54.5 whiffs%

2. Rodón, Carlos LHP, 25 whiffs/53 swings, 47.2 whiffs%

3. Nola, Aaron RHP, 14 whiffs/35 swings, 40 whiffs%

4. Boyd, Matthew LHP, 15 whiffs/38 swings, 39.5 whiffs%

5. Ragans, Cole LHP, 13 whiffs/36 swings, 36.1 whiffs%

6. Cease, Dylan RHP, 15 whiffs/42 swings, 35.7 whiffs%

7. Manaea, Sean LHP, 19 whiffs/54 swings, 35.2 whiffs%

8. Brown, Hunter RHP, 16 whiffs/46 swings, 34.8 whiffs%

9. Lugo, Seth RHP, 13 whiffs/38 swings, 34.2 whiffs%

10. King, Michael RHP, 15 whiffs/45 swings, 33.3 whiffs%

So it's time to update that list! And I think the most interesting thing was Walker Buehler's return to command with his new version of dominance. Yes, it's true that his fastball doesn't command the same respect anymore, but did you detail this for a second?: The Mets recorded 12 swings and misses of their 16 swings against Buehler's sweeper-knuckle curveball mix. That return to command by Buehler is one of the best pieces of news the Dodgers could receive as they prepare to make a statement in Game 4.