Don't let them walk
This Thursday was an exciting day of baseball, with those classic twists and turns that fans expect in a postseason game. The Yankees were on the verge of taking a 3-0 lead in the ALCS, but the Guardians woke up in the most surprising way they've done in some games this year: hitting home runs.
On the other hand, the Dodgers turned the NLCS on its head with a crushing 10-2 victory against the Mets. They are now one win away from returning to their first World Series since 2020. You know, the Dodgers have had two keys that have driven their postseason success so far: an unbeatable bullpen, and a lineup that has hit Mets pitchers hard—not including left-hander Sean Manaea, who would be the starter in a hypothetical Game 5.
Let's go to baseball!
Guardians 7, Yankees 5 (Yankees lead ALCS 2-1)
As the Guardians took a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the sixth, I was reminded of a stat that trended throughout the regular season: When they scored first, they went 59-16. The Yankees have scored first in all three ALCS games. When the Guardians' opponents scored first in the regular season, they went 33-53. In this postseason, they are 2-0 and 1-4, respectively.
In Game 3 on Thursday, the Yankees scored first, on a single by Jose Trevino in the top of the second inning. But then the Guardians answered with a two-run homer by Kyle Manzardo. They went into the sixth, leading 2-1, and a single by Andres Gimenez made it 3-1. The Cleveland crowd was starting to get a little hope from a reasonable sentiment: It was the first time in this ALCS that the Guardians had gone into the seventh inning with a lead. And then Hunter Gaddis started the eighth inning by striking out Trevino, and forcing Gleyber Torres to ground out to second. The Guardians were 45-0 at home when they went into the eighth inning with a lead. And 37-0 the rest of the way on the road. That makes it 82-0 for the year going into October.
I was thinking about all that when Gaddis walked Juan Soto in the top of the eighth inning with two outs. Gaddis' four balls were the closest thing to an intentional walk. Watch the sequence of the four wasted pitches here:
I don't know if it happened to you too, but sometimes I don't understand how pitchers of this level can lose control like this. That's why I think Gaddis most likely intended to throw an intentional walk to Soto. Four pitches with the ridiculous hope of seeing an absurd swing.
Those kinds of tactics don't work with Juan Soto. In fact, along with Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan of the Guardians, Soto has been the only hitter with 100% swing and contact against pitches in the strike zone this postseason. I don't know if walking Soto was Guardians manager Stephen Vogt's idea or was a product of Gaddis' nerves or his lack of control. Gaddis, who allowed a home run to Judge in Game 2, was supposed to do everything to get Soto out.
I don't think he wanted another matchup with Judge. But the truth was that the walk to Soto offered the dangerous opportunity for Aaron Judge to step up to the plate with the Yankees' potential tie-breaking game just a swing away. The expression on Gaddis' face said more than a thousand words. He was frozen on the mound. So, I think we all knew what Vogt's next move would be: an emergency call for Emmanuel Clase in the bullpen.
Clase vs Judge. Cleveland's superstar closer and Cy Young Award contender against the AL MVP favorite. Clase's towering 100 mph cutter against the best hitter on planet earth and the Guardians fans roaring at Progressive Field.
The timing couldn't have been better!
Clase threw a challenging 99 mph cutter down the middle of the strike zone. Judge's swing didn't come in time, but he managed to foul it off. Then Clase threw another 99 mph cutter to the outside corner (inside the strike zone), which drew a swing and miss from Judge. The third pitch was another cutter, also low, but even further outside. Judge let it go. And then, on a 1-2 count, what was Clase's next pitch? Yes, another cutter low and outside, but not far enough to escape. Judge was prepared and crushed it. What a swing! It looked like a laser beam.
I thought the ball would hit the right field wall, but Judge's 110 mph line drive didn't come down. It was a missile that missed in the blink of an eye, and the Yankees tied the score 3-3. What a moment!
Clase was visibly defeated. I don't know if you thought the same thing I perceived, but Clase has looked somewhat unprotected when opponents have hit his main pitch, the 100 mph cutter and above. And it's clear that the cutter is the pitch that Clase has the most confidence in. The matchup against Judge was key, and Clase preferred to win or die throwing four consecutive cutters to the outside corner. Whoever ordered the pitch there, manager Vogt, pitching coach Carl Willis, catcher Austin Hedges or Clase himself, paid dearly for the challenge.
One thing that stands out to me about Clase is that he has been the most dominant closer in the game (you could say the last three seasons) and he doesn't excel as a great strikeout hitter. I mean, it's not that a closer has to necessarily get most of his outs by striking out. The important thing, of course, is that he manages to save games. But the art of striking out is usually one of the main characteristics that defines a closer. And, because of the situations he normally faces, he must have the ability to strike out.
Clase has not been able to record more strikeouts than innings in his last two seasons. But still, no one can ignore that he is one of the good closers. Now, the point here is that he has not been able to impose his dominance in this postseason. After Judge's spectacular home run, Giancarlo Stanton crunched a slider in the middle of the strike zone and hit a 390-foot bomb through center field at Progressive Field. Clase's second consecutive 1-2 slide ended up triggering a back-to-back. The Guardians' lead was wiped out in three minutes (Judge hit the two-run homer at 7:49 PM, and Stanton a solo homer at 7:52 PM) and a span of 11 pitches.
After the comeback, the Yankees were one out away from victory with their best reliever on the mound, Luke Weaver. I think the Guardians have seen too much of Weaver. In Game 2, Jose Ramirez hit a solo homer off him in the top of the ninth. And now, again in the ninth, it was rookie Jhonkensy Noel (as a pinch hitter) who crushed Weaver's changeup. Noel hit a sensational two-run homer that tied the score 5-5. An inning later, in the bottom of the 10th, David Fry hit a walk-off homer off Clay Holmes and the Yankees were left on the ground at Progressive Field.
Guardians 7, Yankees 5. The Guardians entered the eighth inning with 11 runners left on base. They left runners on base in seven of the eight innings. Seven of them in scoring position: six on second, and one on third. It seems incredible to hear that they still managed to win Game 3 after all.
So, believe it or not, there is still hope in Cleveland that the Guardians will rally and tie the ALCS in Game 4. But beyond that prospect, which obviously could become a reality, I was wondering this: What would have happened in Games 1 and 2 if the Guardians had scored first? Will the dominance of the Guardians' pitchers be repeated?
Matthew Boyd's start was undoubtedly inspiring. He pitched five innings and left the Yankees with two hits and just one run. I wanted to get there, because once again walks were fatal for the Guardians. You might be surprised by this, but seven of the Yankees' 16 runs (44%) have come from runners reaching base on walks.
Yes, almost 50%! Three of the Yankees' five runs in Game 3 were scored by runners reaching base on walks:
—second inning: Anthony Volpe walked, then scored on Jose Trevino's single.
—eighth inning: Juan Soto walked, then Judge and Stanton homered off Clase.
—ninth inning: Anthony Volpe walked, then scored on Gleyber Torres' sacrifice fly.
In Game 1, three of the five runs the Yankees scored were runners walking. And one of six in Game 2. I wonder again what would have happened if the Guardians hadn't given up so many walks. So far in the postseason, the Yankees have been the team with the best plate discipline. Their hitters have posted the lowest rate of chasing pitches out of the strike zone (22.8). Next up are the Dodgers (23.8) — does that seem like a coincidence?
We'll see how the Guardians and Yankees respond in Game 4.