From focus to success: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s early impact has been key for D-Backs
One of my first thoughts about Lourdes Gurriel Jr. coming to Arizona went beyond her performance. Having played 468 games in five seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays from 2018-22, he was eager to see what the D-Backs' process of adjusting to a different group dynamic would be like.
Gurriel Jr., 29, was an important player as part of the new generation that has propelled the Blue Jays to the playoffs in four of the past eight seasons. Instead, after landing in Arizona, it was inevitable to keep those prospects on the sidelines considering the D-Backs have reached the postseason in just three of the past 15 seasons.
Even so, the situation for Gurriel Jr. was nothing new in his career. His first story about changing teams was extremely controversial and he transcended when he played in Cuba, standing out as one of the main prospects in the National Series. In 2013, Gurriel Jr. joined his brothers Yulieski and Yunieski —the eldest of the three sons of legendary former outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Sr.— to play with the Industriales de La Habana, precisely the rival that had eliminated the most times in the playoffs his native team, the Sancti Spíritus Gallos.
This time, Lourdes was faced with just one more change, a new expectation in joining the Arizona D-Backs. Of course, personally, Gurriel Jr. had several challenges ahead, after having seen his production plummet from 21 home runs in 2021 to just five during 121 games in 2022.
After 105 plate appearances where he could only hit one home run and produced just a .699 OPS during April, Lourdes began to show the fruits of his labor during the off-season. Smack dab in the middle of last month, when he drove in two crucial runs on May 15 against the A's, Gurriel Jr. racked up his sixth home run of the season.
Six? Yes, in just 151 appearances at the plate, he surpassed the five he had recorded last year in 493. But beyond his offensive explosion and the return of his power, the most important thing is that Gurriel Jr. has been one of the key players in the team's successful start. After two months of the regular season, the D-Backs (33-23) are just ½ game behind the Dodgers (34-23) in the NL West.*
*By the way, the D-Backs have been the best team playing on the road, going 15-11, and also against teams in their Division, posting an amazing 15-9 mark so far.
The Blue Jays haven't been as successful this season and, of course, none of the reasons revolve around moving Lourdes to Arizona. For the D-Backs, however, the approach sounds much different, because the acquisition of the talented Cuban outfielder fortified the complexion of a team rife with talent.
After 50 games through the first two months of the season, Gurriel Jr. has nine home runs, 31 RBI, and a .907 OPS, demonstrating some of the impacts he could make to the D-Backs' lineup if he stays healthy and makes settings. In 101 plate appearances in May, his performance recalled former first baseman Paul Goldschmidt's unforgettable season starts in the early 2010s.
With eight homers and 18 RBI, Lourdes produced much of his 203 OPS+, the third-highest all-time — tied with Justin Upton — for D-Backs hitters who have amassed at least 100 PA during May. Goldy leads the franchise ranking with 240 OPS+ in 2015 and 210 in 2013 as well as in slugging (.750), a category where Lourdes was located producing the fourth highest (.714).
"First of all, he's a good hitter who's fun to watch," D-backs manager Torey Lovullo told MLB during an interview about the impact of Lourdes during the last week of May. “I'm a big fan of his because of the approach. He is on all pitches. He gets a slider probably mid-up, mid-in and hits it for the big home run. He doesn't surprise me, he is capable of doing anything”.
Personally, Gurriel Jr.'s record for home runs for a month was the 10 he hit in June 2019, and his RBIs his 21 in September 2021. However, in terms of offensive performance, his line cut of .352/.416/.714 and 1.130 OPS through May of this year has been unmatched compared to any month in his career where he has racked up a minimum of 100 plate appearances.
Other striking offensive aspects of Lourdes' tendencies have been his overall reduction in whiff rate and adjustment against breaking balls. Remember Lourdes' high 32.6 swings and missed rate in her first season as a starter with the Blue Jays in 2019? After seeing 776 pitches in the first two months of the season, he has considerably reduced that trend to 17.8. As for the opposition attack, here's a quick look at the adjustments Lourdes made after an inconsistent start in April:
His discipline at the plate was decisive, as was his swing work to improve contact. After the opposition proved a considerable dose of dominance by throwing 33.2% breaking balls at him during April, the strategic plan hardly changed. However, Lourdes turned on several key offensive aspects that had seemed dull, increasing his slugging percentage from .273 to .677, though he hit just two home runs against breakings and six of eight during May after smashing fastballs.
When you visit Baseball-Reference and check out Gurriel Jr.'s stats, there's an interesting line that gives these averages per 162 games: 36 doubles, 24 home runs, 79 runs scored, and 89 RBIs. Interestingly, Lourdes has never surpassed those numbers, but after her first two months of the season, she is averaging a .907 OPS, .100 more points than her projected .807 per 162 games.
Those predictions lead us, of course, to the fact that over a full season, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s tendencies could lead him to produce that performance due to his averages. So, after the best month of his career in May, Lourdes is beginning to project a season where he might even be above his MLB average.
Now all that remains is that in the following months, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. he can turn the odds into reality.