Getting there on time

Before I get to where I want to go, let's talk a little about Major League pitching. When the Wild Card series ended, I was doing an analysis of which pitching rotations would have the best projections for this postseason. Then, I wanted to go a little deeper. I wanted to know which rotations projected the most dominance with each pitch. And so I came up with this interesting list where the New York Yankees and the San Diego Padres stood out by leading two elite pitching teams.

Teams that project to have the best pitches for this postseason

• San Diego Padres, Split-Finger: .155 BA, .169 xBA, 44.5 K%, 3.8 BB%, 42.3 Whiffs%, 211 PA

• New York Yankees, Curveball: .160 BA, .181 xBA, 24.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 24.1 Whiffs%, 85 PA

• Los Angeles Dodgers, Sweeper: .172 BA, .191 xBA, 38.7 K%, 2.6 BB%, 34.2 Whiffs%, 274 PA

• Kansas City, Changeup: .195 BA, .208 xBA, 25.9 K%, 5.8 BB%, 25.6 Whiffs%, 798 PA

• San Diego Padres, Slider: .200 BA, .201 xBA, 33.7 K%, 6.1 BB%, 31.6 Whiffs%, 965 PA

• New York Yankees, 4-Seam Fastball: .222 BA, .231 xBA, 24.5 K%, 11.3 BB%, 21.7 Whiffs%, 1797 PA

The San Diego Padres' split-finger pitching was the most dominant pitch in the rankings. But then the Padres also came out dominating the slider with the third-highest strikeout percentage. The Yankees led the curveballs and fastballs.

The Royals had the best changeups with, you know, Michael Wacha at the top: he allowed a .169 average against his changeup, the second lowest in the league (pitchers with a minimum of 150 batters faced). The Yankees had enough information about that and got 10 balls off Wacha's changeup. They were patient. Wacha got just four swings and misses, two of them by Aaron Judge. But he gave up Oswaldo Cabrera's double in the bottom of the fourth and then walked Gleyber Torres in the bottom of the fifth.

That walk after a nine-pitch at-bat led to Wacha's exit. And, in that inning, the third run for the Yankees. The Royals' pitchers were so careful that they lost control of the Yankees' hitters and ended up throwing eight walks—two with the bases loaded.

I think that was the moment when the Royals' bullpen lost control of the game, in addition to the key baserunning error that prevented a run in the top of the second inning. Salvador Perez was sent to suicide at home by the third base coach. That first out gave some relief to Gerrit Cole, who was beginning to need oxygen. The Royals lost 6-5. They went 2-for-4 with runners in scoring position, though they did leave seven runners on base. Timely hitting was lacking, especially against the Yankees' bullpen. The Royals' pitching slumped enough to give the Yankees life.

In the end, three of the eight walks Kansas City's pitching recorded resulted in runs for the Yankees, who went 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position.

Back to pitching dominance, the next Royal in the Top Changeup was left-hander Cole Ragans, who will pitch in Game 2 against the Yankees. Ragans led the league with the highest whiff percentage (47.8)—Ragans' changeup was even more dominant than Tarik Skubal's. Yes, as surprising as it may seem!

I was also struck by the fact that the Yankees lead with the curveball. The only pitchers who really had the curveball as a primary pitch before the postseason were Clarke Schmidt (he allowed just a .143 average to his opponents) and Gerrit Cole (.209). But then I found an answer: Actually, most Yankees pitchers haven't used the curveball. That dominance is driven by a small group of four pitchers, adding Marcus Stroman and Mark Leiter Jr.—Carlos Rodón wasn't at the same level of dominance.

Tonight in Game 1, no Yankees pitcher threw a curveball. In fact, they changed the game plan, using the Royals' own weapon, the changeup. That's why I think the expansion in the level of dominance of a rotation is never as collective as the numbers might express. I mean, on pitches that pitchers use less than fastballs, you're likely to see a smaller trend. The Padres' case sounds interesting. The use of the changeup has indeed expanded among the pitching mix of the main pitchers. We can see part of the result here:

And then the Dodgers arrive with their arsenal of sweepers:

And the Padres are back with some of the best sliders in the game:

Instead, Shohei Ohtani's sensational homer that tied the score 3-3 in the bottom of the third inning came against a 97 mph fastball from Dylan Cease. And Teoscar Hernandez's single that gave the Dodgers a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the fourth inning against reliever Jeremiah Estrada came against a 98 mph fastball.