It gets late early
The Yankees are halfway to the World Series.
There are three potentials that shined through in the Cleveland Guardians' play leading into the postseason:
They excelled with the best bullpen in the majors.
They stood out as one of the best contact and most skilled base-running teams—they were the fifth team with the most stolen bases (148) during the regular season.
They played brilliant defense all year.
That outstanding potential hasn't shown signs of impact in the Guardians' first two games against the Yankees in the ALCS. I'd say we've seen a version of the opposite. The Guardians have looked disarmed: they've scored just five runs in two games, with only two extra-base hits (solo homers by Brayan Rocchio in Game 1 and Jose Ramirez in the ninth inning of Game 2).
Yankees pitchers have struck out 21, and get this: The Guardians have registered a whopping 49 swings and misses, which brings us up to a 30.4 swing-and-miss percentage. The Yankees' swing-and-miss rate so far has been 21.3%. 47% of Cleveland hitters' swings and misses have been on fastball attempts, and 22% have been on changeups.
Much of that dominance was generated by the pitching of left-hander Carlos Rodon, who induced 25 swings and misses from the Guardians in Game 1. Gerrit Cole wasn't having the best of nights, and still induced 10 swings and misses in his 4 ⅓-inning start in Game 2. The other thing that raised alarm bells was the Guardians' defense. A fielding error by shortstop Brayan Rocchio (he missed an Aaron Judge fly ball) cost Tanner Bibee a run in the bottom of the first inning.
In the second inning, Anthony Volpe ran aggressively from first to third, surprising center fielder Lane Thomas after a single by Anthony Rizzo. Alex Verdugo drove in Volpe with a great batting piece, hitting a double to left. Perhaps Thomas thought Volpe was just making a feint, but he actually kept running until he was safe at third. Still, it was clear that if Thomas had reacted in time he had a chance to get Volpe out at third.
The Guardians lost Game 2, 6-3. Discount the unearned run the Yankees scored in the first inning against Bibee. The probable out Thomas couldn't get when Volpe reached third in the second inning. And later, in the bottom of the sixth, another unearned run on an error by right fielder Will Brennan. Well, taking away those three runs generated by bad defensive plays, Jose Ramirez's homer off Luke Weaver in the top of the ninth would have tied the score, 3-3. Can you imagine that scenario? But that's not what happened!
Yankees manager Aaron Boone made the decision to send Weaver in for the ninth inning (with no save opportunity) to preserve the four-run lead. The Guardians generated more scoring opportunities in Game 2. They got 14 runners on base, but left 11 on base. Game 1's problem with runners in scoring position (they went 1-for-4) was magnified in Game 2 (they hit 0-for-7).
Either way, I don't think the Guardians can beat the Yankees by hitting like they have in these first two games: .209/.280/.299/.579 in 75 plate appearances. When you take away the performance of leadoff Steve Kwan* and ninth hitter Brayan Rocchio, who have combined for 6-for-15 (.400), the Guardians' lineup sinks to 8-for-52 with 18 strikeouts.