Postseason: It's time for the punchline
After the first four games of each playoff, this probably wasn't what we expected: there will be Game 6 in all four Quarterfinal series!
How did all this happen?: Pinar del Río led the series 3-1 and lost Game 5 against Sancti Spíritus. Santiago de Cuba won the first three games against Industriales, but the Azules de la Capital won Games 4 and 5. The Leñadores de Las Tunas lead the series 3-2 after winning Game 5, breaking a 2-2 tie with the Ciego de Ávila Tigres.
The Alazanes beat the Cocodrilos 8-2, with a five-run rally at the start of the seventh to break a 2-2 tie. Before this season, 24 best-in-seven-game Quarterfinal playoff series had been played: 12 of them, 50%, have been decided in at least six games. 67%, eight of those 12 series, reached the always unpredictable Game 7.
The last time at least three Quarterfinal series were decided in Game 7 was 12 years ago. In that season of the 51st National Series, the only playoff that ended in less than seven games was Industriales vs Cienfuegos. The Blues of the Capital won 4-1 in just five games, achieving a sweep as visitors at the 5 de Septiembre stadium. Matanzas vs Sancti Spíritus, Granma vs Villa Clara and Ciego de Ávila vs Las Tunas were the winners in Game 7. The Cocodrilos had qualified for the playoffs for the first time. With Víctor Mesa making his debut as manager, Matanzas won Games 6 and 7 against Sancti Spíritus, a comeback that Granma also repeated against Villa Clara.
The Tigres' path was different, as they had to overcome a deficit after being down 3-1 against the Leñadores. After that unforgettable seven-game series, Ciego de Ávila eliminated Granma in the Semifinals and defeated Industriales 4-1 to win the national title.
So we will have four Games 6. Let's remember how each team got here, analyzing part of what is coming.
Pinar del Río vs Sancti Spíritus
Pinar del Río leads the series 3-2
The key turning point (so far) in the playoff: Pinar del Río's pitching has limited Sancti Spíritus' offense. The Gallos scored only three runs in the first four games against the Pinar del Río pitchers. That poor offense included 17 consecutive scoreless innings between Games 3 and 4. There is no doubt that the Vegueros offense is much stronger, but in two of the five games Sancti Spíritus' pitching has been able to stop them. The performances of José Eduardo Santos in Game 2 and Yankiel Mauris in Game 5 have kept the Gallos alive, carrying an offense that has not hit home runs and is averaging .130 with runners in scoring position.
The victory that gave a first turn to the series: After regaining the lead (2-1) in Game 3, Pinar del Río put the series 3-1. That was a key point especially when facing three games on the road, but the Vegueros need to finish.
Level of expectations for Game 6: Do you remember what happened in Game 2? Right-hander José Eduardo Santos controlled Pinar del Río's offense with seven consecutive zeros. The Gallos scored two runs in the first three innings of the game, which were enough against right-hander Vladimir Baños. Pinar del Río had not received a shutout playing in the playoffs at the Capitán San Luis stadium since Game 6 of the 2004 Semifinal against Industriales right-hander, Deynis Suárez. For Game 6, Pinar del Río remains a favorite, but will have to demonstrate its power against the Gallos pitching.
Industriales vs Santiago de Cuba
Santiago de Cuba leads the series 3-2
The key turning point (so far) in the playoff: The start of three consecutive victories that gave the Avispas an advantage. I think this small comparative summary shows the notable differences in terms of performance and results for both teams:
Team A: .311/.356/.453/.809, 25 runs scored, 3.18 ERA, 29 K, 19 BB, 33% unearned runs allowed, .186 RISP, .941 pct. Fielding.
Team B: .256/.337/.327/.664, 24 runs scored, 4.60 ERA, 19 K, 10 BB, 8% unearned runs allowed, .219 RISP, .966 pct. Fielding.
Looking at those numbers, who do you think should be the team with a 3-2 lead in the Quarterfinal series? Team “A” is better on offense, has scored one more run and has better pitching effectiveness—although it allows a high rate of unearned runs. The aspects where the “B” team excels have been in defense, and a slight advantage in production with runners in scoring position.
So, you know: Team “A” in that comparison is Industriales, and team “B” is Santiago de Cuba. It seems unacceptable that the Avispas are ahead 3-2 with such poor offensive production, and a starting pitching that has not recorded any quality starts. However, baseball does not work through statistical filters: Santiago de Cuba knew how to impose itself and exploit every inaccuracy of Industriales during the first three games.
The victory that gave a first turn to the series: Harold Vázquez's walk-off home run that completed the Avispas' comeback in Game 1. After that first victory in a game that had been led by Andy Vargas, the ace of Industriales rotation, Santiago de Cuba gave an important turn to the series with another comeback in Game 2. Then, the victory in Game 3 was the blow closest to a finish. Taking advantage of the dominance of right-hander Maykel Taylor —who recorded 23 consecutive outs until the tenth—, Industriales managed to tie the score at the end of the ninth.
With a 4-4 tie came the Tie Break and another of the moments to remember in this postseason: the controversial play at the plate, where Oscar Valdés was poorly positioned to put out pinch-runner Osvaldo Duany at the plate.
Industriales had had the opportunity to score the decisive run in the bottom of the tenth inning, but Yasiel Santoya and Yasmany Tomás could not produce. In the history of the Cuban baseball playoffs, no team has managed to overcome a 0-3 deficit.
Santiago de Cuba is missing the finishing touch.
Level of expectations for Game 6: Depending on how the ups and downs of this series have been presented, the team that makes the fewest technical-tactical errors will win. Industriales has played better defense after an initial debacle with a record seven errors in Game 2. The offense has continued to base runners, but the production will not work if the hitting in clutch situations is not maintained. For Game 6, Industriales will need another quality start from Maykel Taylor, especially to avoid a hasty bullpen move.
For Santiago de Cuba, the absence of Francisco Martínez (he was ejected in Game 4) led to adjustments that weakened the defense and an at-bat in the lineup.*
*One of the best news with the return of “Paky” Martínez to the lineup is that Maykol Poll reached base five times as a leadoff in Game 5.
With the return of Martínez, the Avispas need the offensive awakening of Adriel Labrada and Eduardo García (third and fourth hitters in the lineup), who have combined for a .241 average with runners in scoring position. As for the pitching staff, there is no doubt that a collective alert went off: take care of the command of the pitches against Yasmany Tomás. Industriales is leading these playoffs with 16 extra bases in five games, but Tomás' power is on another level. In case the pitchers do not decide to challenge Tomás with the first base unoccupied, Oscar Valdés could have more than one key at-bat appearance in Game 6.
The other challenge here is for right-hander Yosiel Serrano, who allowed 10 hits in 4 ⅔ innings against Industriales in Game 2. After Osvaldo Acuña's early explosion (he was hit in the face by an Oscar Valdés line drive) last Tuesday In Game 4, the Avispas will need durability from Serrano.
Granma vs Matanzas
Matanzas leads the series 3-2
The key turning point (so far) in the playoff: The two starts of left-hander Yoennis Yera, who easily won Games 1 and 4. Yera allowed only two runs in 12 innings, striking out six opponents and walking six. None of his 49 opponents hit extra bases. Behind Yera, veteran Noelvis Entenza has recorded three scoreless saves in 6 ⅔ innings. As reported in Game 5, Yera will return to Mexico and will not pitch again in this playoff. The Cocodrilos will have to find the success they need without their ace and as visitors.
The victory that gave a first turn to the series: The 8-7 success in Game 2. Without that Matanzas victory, the Alazanes would be returning home with a 3-2 advantage.
Level of expectations for Game 6: The Alazanes will almost certainly rely on lefty Yunier Castillo. The question here is whether the manager of the Cocodrilos, Armando Ferrer, will trust rookie Roilán Averohff again after the offensive awakening of the Alazanes de Granma.
Ciego de Ávila vs Las Tunas
Las Tunas leads the series 3-2
The key turning point (so far) in the playoff: The Leñadores' (defending champions) two wins in Games 1 and 2. The Tigres had a chance to score during the Tie Break of Game 1, but were unable to produce . And the next day in Game 2, the defense faded after the quality outing of rookie Ediel Ponce. After starting down 2-0, the Tigres' offense carried the team to tie the series 2-2 with 26 runs in two games. Although the pitchers can stop the Leñadores' offense, the Tigres have shown that their main weapon is offense.
The victory that gave a first turn to the series: After losing Game 1 2-1 in 10 innings, Ciego de Ávila reached the seventh with a 3-2 lead in Game 2. The defense failed, the bullpen could not got the key outs and the Leñadores produced a decisive three-run rally. Opening 2-0 was fatal, but the Tigres returned home and were able to recover.
Level of expectations for Game 6: The Las Tunas Leñadores have won their last nine postseason games at home—and 11 of the last 13! Four of those games were decided by a difference between 1 and 3 runs, and in all of them the Leñadores scored at least four runs. A team that wins 11 of 13 games almost always achieves victories of all kinds, especially those that seemed to turn into losses. Until three days ago, Las Tunas had extended its streak of consecutive playoff victories against Ciego de Ávila to seven.
The decisive moment has arrived, where the Tigres will have to show if they are ready to stage a comeback away from home.
