José Abreu and time
Throughout his MLB career, José Dariel Abreu has shown his natural talent and, at 35 years old, he continues his battle against time.
By Yirsandy Rodríguez
When Cuban José Abreu was announced to bat in the first inning this Sunday at Comerica Park, he was sporting a .309/.382/.454 slash line.
During his previous eight years in the major leagues, all with the Chicago White Sox, “Pito” Abreu has excelled as a first baseman who combines power, plate discipline, and contact hitting. In this 2022 season, he has reduced his strikeout rate considerably and is on pace to complete the season with the most walks in his career. Still, while his .382 OBP far exceeds his .354 career with the White Sox*, his average home run and RBI output have regressed.
*Hasn't had an on-base percentage this high since hitting .383 during his debut season in 2014.
Jose Abreu's career home run and RBI average per 162 games played (by Baseball-Reference): 31 HR, 111 RBIs.
With the White Sox (76-71) 15 games out of the regular season, it's clear Abreu will finish well below MLB average for home runs and RBIs. From what we can analyze here, he has hit 50% of his home runs, and he has 64% of his usual years with 100 or more RBIs.
In almost all cases, it is normal that a decline of such proportions is driven by different tendencies, most of them negative… it is the logical thing for any hitter, right? However, we're looking at Jose Dariel Abreu who, at 35, is still one of the toughest hitters to put out in the majors. And this year, while he fell short of coming close to his career home run and RBI average, he is on track to complete one of his best seasons with the White Sox.
How can that be possible, with fewer home runs and RBIs? Yes, and we're going to prove it, since we should often remember this: Sometimes, in certain contexts and game situations, a walk could get as much projection for the odds of winning as, say, a home run.
The fact is that this season, Abreu has reduced his strikeout rate to 16.6%, increased his walk rate to 9.4%, and is averaging .356 BABIP, the three best marks in his career at age 35. While strikeouts have taken over the so-called true results today in MLB, Abreu found a way to contribute again and lead the White Sox lineup.
According to Baseball-Reference's bWAR, Abreu has starred in his third season with at least 4.0 oWAR (offensive WAR) since his debut in 2014:
2014—5.8 bWAR, 6.8 oWAR
2015—3.5 bWAR, 3.7 oWAR
2016—3.1 bWAR, 3.2 oWAR
2017—4.9 bWAR, 4.8 oWAR
2018—2.0 bWAR, 2.0 oWAR
2019—2.5 bWAR, 2.6 oWAR
2020—3.0 bWAR, 2.5 oWAR
2021—3.0 bWAR, 3.1 oWAR
2022—4.0 bWAR, 4.1 oWAR
(bWAR is Baseball-Reference.com's version of WAR)
So even though he's racked up fewer home runs and RBIs, who's in the mood to debate Pito Abreu regressions? Well, we can still assure you that it would be a meaningless debate. Abreu and time don't seem to go hand in hand, at least not the way it works for other players in the Major Leagues. The first baseman from Cienfuegos debuted with the White Sox at age 27, after playing a decade in the National Series and multiple events with the Cuban national team.
For a player starting his MLB season at 27, it's not normal to have Abreu's experience. But it's also unreasonable to expect five years as consistent as Abreu managed to do in Chicago. When the 2022 season ends, Abreu will be on track to complete a decade as the White Sox's starting first baseman in MLB.
As he has aged, he has also matured at the major league level, and this season could be the answer for the foreseeable future: Abreu can still make adjustments at a high level at the plate. On swing and contact trends, the MVP of the (shortened) 2020 season has worked to extend his discipline at the plate throughout the year. The results behind his progression in WAR have been brilliant: he's reduced his overall swing rate (46.9%) and against pitches out of the strike zone (29.1%), both career highs, and he's enjoying the most effective season in contact (79.1%).
Before going 1-for-4 with three runs scored Sunday in the White Sox's 11-5 success against the Tigers, Abreu led all hitters with 21 hits against Detroit this season (.420 BA). His career total now stands at 196 hits against the Tigers, the most by any hitter against an opponent in MLB since 2014, Abreu's debut season.
Do you know how many players have extended careers with a season of at least 150 hits, 35 doubles, 15 home runs, and 70 RBIs starting at age 35? The select list of hitters with multiple seasons does not even reach ten:
1. David Ortiz (3)
2. Luis Gonzalez (3)
3. Raul Ibanez (3)
4. Bill Buckner (2)
5. Edgar Martinez (2)
6. Jeff Kent (2)
7. Moises Alou (2)
8. Paul O'Neill (2)
With his production this year, Abreu is already part of the ranking of 45 players of all time. And as we have analyzed here, it seems that, if he stays healthy, the Cienfuegos giant of Central “Mal Tiempo” will continue to make history at the highest level of baseball.
Let's hope so, while Abreu continues we enjoy his battle against Major League pitching and his most implacable rival: time.
(Photo: José Abreu/GettyImages)