Playoffs Races, Junio 14

First of all, happy Friday! I didn't want to go to bed without wishing you a great weekend, and the best of Sundays celebrating Father's Day. I hope you've enjoyed all the daily Playoff Races columns and updates. I don't think that this Saturday it will be decided who will take the last qualifying ticket to the postseason of the 63rd National Series of Cuban baseball, so I will take a break this weekend and we will return here on Monday. Let's talk a little baseball!

Thank you, José “Pito” Abreu

Before delving into the results of the 63rd National Series, let's take a timely parenthesis. You probably heard one of the most shocking news this Friday, when the Astros announced the dismissal of Cuban first baseman José Abreu. If you followed this first half of the season in MLB, it was obvious that the news was not going to surprise you. Abreu was never able to get out of the offensive slump that dragged him down to a disappointing .124/.167/.195/.361, with just two home runs and 7 RBI in 120 plate appearances.

Upon his return from demotion when he was demoted to the Minor Leagues to try to adjust his swing, Abreu averaged a dismal .519 OPS with more strikeouts (10) than hits (7) and RBIs (4). I also think the position of the Astros, who are eight games out of first place in the American League West, accelerated the decision to waive Abreu for the rest of the season. After going 0-for-3 and grounding into a double play in the Astros' 5-3 loss to the Giants last Wednesday at Oracle Park, it's really hard for me to imagine that was Abreu's last game in Majors.

Either way, the news was inevitable. The Astros made a necessary and absolutely reasonable decision. The turning point could be seen coming. The Astros will owe Abreu the remainder of his $19.5 million salary this season and the full amount next year. That would be at least $30 million in dead money that Astros general manager Dana Brown says won't influence how he can proceed at the trade deadline or next winter as he pursues free agents.

“We'll do what we have to do to make this work,” Brown said. “We want to get back to the postseason. In the end we want to win the division. We have dead money in baseball. That's part of how it works. You are trusting in human beings and sometimes these human beings take a fall. “We have dead money all over baseball.”

The Astros had high expectations when they signed Abreu to a three-year, $58.5 million deal in November 2022. In the end, the risky strategy of signing a veteran player didn't work out for them with Abreu. That's destiny. That's baseball. I don't think this was the script we expected for José Abreu's retirement, but I think this dismissal will not tarnish his legacy.

Playoff expectations

When this Friday's games ended without any considerable change in the standings, these were the possible Quarterfinal series if the 63rd National Series of Cuban baseball had ended:

• Pinar del Río vs Sancti Spíritus

• Las Tunas vs Matanzas

• Granma vs Ciego de Ávila

• Santiago de Cuba vs Industriales

Yes, all the series would have had a recent history:

• Sancti Spíritus defeated Pinar del Río 4-3 in the quarterfinal playoff of the 61st National Series

• Las Tunas beat Matanzas 4-2 in the Semifinal playoff of the 62nd National Series

• Granma swept Ciego de Ávila 4-0 in the Semifinal playoff of the 61st National Series

• Industriales defeated Santiago de Cuba 4-3 in the Semifinal playoff of the 62nd National Series

The places have not yet been decided and there is a strong dispute between the contenders for the last ticket to the postseason, but there is a good chance of seeing those confrontations. After this Friday's results, Sancti Spíritus' 8-7 success against Holguín has put the Gallos two games away from reaching Ciego de Ávila and Matanzas, and 2 ½ from Industriales. Sancti Spíritus, Matanzas and Ciego de Ávila have four games left to finish the schedule of this regular season. And, after this Friday's sealed game, Industriales have five games left. It seems like a few games to see big changes in places, but it could happen.

Of course, the disadvantage of Ciego de Ávila and Matanzas in this race to rise in standings is that they both lost the series against Industriales. The other drawback for Sancti Spíritus is that they lost the series by a 5-0 sweep against Ciego de Ávila, and 4-1 against Matanzas. And, although the Gallos won 4-1 in the series against Industriales, it seems quite difficult for them to catch up with the Blues, who will close the regular season hosting the Pirates.

Returning to the five contenders for the eighth playoff berth, this could be the maximum number of wins should any team win all of its remaining games:

• Sancti Spíritus: 40

• Artemisa: 40

• Guantánamo: 40

• Villa Clara: 39

• Mayabeque: 38

As you can see, even if Mayabeque won their four remaining games, they would accumulate 38 victories. If Sancti Spíritus wins three of its last four games, Mayabeque would not be able to catch them. Guantánamo also has a certain disadvantage, because it lost the series 4-1 against Sancti Spíritus. So, in a hypothetical tie with the Gallos, they would be eliminated.

I think the team with all the advantages here is Sancti Spíritus, because they still have a game against Holguín and will close the regular season against Cienfuegos. This Friday, the Gallos finally broke a string of 61 consecutive games playing below .500. After starting the season 5-3, Sancti Spíritus lost nine straight games—four against Villa Clara and then they were swept by Ciego de Ávila.

This is how Sancti Spíritus' streak of playing below .500 began, until this Friday they beat the Holguín Cubs 8-7. After a season in which they have had a losing record in 86% of the games (61 of 71), it would be surprising if the Gallos qualified for the postseason.

Nothing is certain yet, but they have the opportunity to achieve it.