Playoffs: Dying in the attempt
Missed opportunities cost Industriales the loss.
In a game that ended with 19 combined runs—six multi-run innings—28 hits, 10 extra-base hits (six doubles and four home runs), 11 walks, and 39 baserunners, it seems unlikely that two defensive errors could have changed the fate of the game. But, you know, everything is unpredictable in baseball. A costly error by Roberto Acevedo in center field and a throwing error by reliever José Isaías Grandales turned the bottom of the eighth and the beginning of the ninth into an ambush for pitchers.
Probabilities in baseball sometimes come and go. Industriales drove in four runs with three home runs. Tailon Sánchez drove in five in four plate appearances. Without Acevedo's fielding error, the Tigres would not have scored a run in the bottom of the eighth. Without Grandales's throwing error to second, Industriales would not have had the chance to tie the score after opening the top of the ninth inning trailing 10-5.
So, after Tuesday's offensive surge in Game 1 of the Semifinal between Industriales and Ciego de Ávila, the Tigres once again proved they are the leaders of this Third Cuban Baseball Elite League. The Leones fell 10-9, and a swing and miss by Andy Cosme dashed hopes of what could have been an epic comeback 13 years after the only victory against Ciego de Ávila in the postseason of the National Series or Elite League.
As was the trend in the last three weeks of the regular season, we continue to see high scores. And you already know the main reason: pitchers can't avoid contact. Quality strikes don't exist, and almost no one can strike out. So we shouldn't be surprised if the ruthless offense continues. The average run average in Industriales vs. Ciego de Ávila games this year was 9.7.
This time, the Leones scored nine runs, surpassing the overall average. So, what would you expect if this series began with a combined 19 runs in Game 1, following the duel between the main starters, Pavel Hernández (Industriales) vs. Ariel Zerquera (Ciego de Ávila). What would you expect if both teams' bullpens combined to allow 12 of the game's 19 runs? What would you expect if, at José Ramón Cepero Stadium, a park designed for pitchers, four home runs were hit?
Ariel Zerquera had allowed two home runs against 241 opponents during the regular season, and in Game 1, he endured a back-to-back by Alfredo Rodríguez and Andy Cosme—both of whom combined to hit one home run every 85 plate appearances in the regular season.
So, we have a lot of questions to answer here. But I think the main point revolves around Industriales' loss for many reasons. When a team has scored nine runs in the history of the Elite League, they have won in 90% of their results. Before this season, Industriales had an 8-0 record in games where they scored at least nine runs. Before Game 1 of the Semifinals, they had a 15-1 record. The outcome of this playoff can be any outcome, but a loss after scoring nine runs is the worst thing that can happen to a team.
Something similar happened to Portuarios in the First Elite League, when they fell 13-9 in Game 2 of the Final against Agricultores. You can read all the columns here, in my archive of that postseason. Any analysis of a game indeed starts with the final score. Industriales lost 10-9. But they were losing 10-5 as the top of the ninth inning began.
In a game without unearned runs, they would have lost 8-6.
I don't know if you understand my point? This wasn't a traditional 10-9 game, where both teams had control at some point. Industriales never led. The Tigres led 4-1 in the bottom of the third, then led 5-3 in the seventh, and finally 10-5 as the ninth began. And I think that scenario of Tigres dominance makes Industriales' loss even more catastrophic.
Yes, well, the final third of the game also ended 6-6 runs, with a disaster from both teams' bullpens. But before getting there, Industriales had countless missed opportunities. Pavel Hernández, the ace of the rotation, leader in strikeouts and quality starts, couldn't establish his dominance of the game. He also didn't rely on anything but his fastball to try to get out of trouble. Although he allowed a run in the first inning, he struck out Robert Luis Delgado to end the inning with two runners on base.
In the second inning, Tailon Sánchez reached third, but Pavel dominated Rodolexis Moreno, who hit a flied out to right field. The third inning was devastating. Pavel was feeling some muscle soreness on the mound, but I don't know if that was the reason he threw only fastballs against Frederich Cepeda and Yordanis Samón. The veteran duo was prepared to stay focused and attack when needed. Cepeda walked twice, and Samón hit a sacrifice fly and a key single in the bottom of the third inning with two outs.
And then came the biggest problem for Pavel and the rest of the Industriales pitchers—with the exception of Fher Cejas—all game long: pitching against Robert Luis Delgado and Tailon Sánchez with runners on base. Tailon cleared the bases with a double in the third, which prompted a blast from Pavel Hernández. In the seventh, Tailon hit an RBI double, and in the ninth, he walked with the bases loaded.
Final result? Tailon drove in five runs, and underrated catcher Fernando De La Paz drove in four: he hit a three-run homer in the seventh and added a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the eighth. In the end, pitchers avoided the duo of Cepeda and Samón, who combined to score six of the team's 10 runs. Cepeda went 3-for-3 with three doubles. Samón went 1-for-1 with a sacrifice fly, a single, and drew a practically absurd number of intentional walks. Look, don't mind my thoughts on intentional walks.
If you've read this column for a while, you know I hate IBB. But I recognize that managers need to trust a move. And sometimes the less common or less daring moves tend to be more effective. Nothing is 100% effective in baseball. However, there is one thing that is 100% risky in baseball when you're trying to keep runs out. And yes, it's intentionally walking. So, as I always say: it's still absurd.