Playoffs Races, Junio 8

The Gallos de Sancti Spíritus are still going strong, and managed to enter the qualifying zone for the first time in this second half of the season.

Let's start this countdown: we have nine games left to finally know which teams will qualify for the postseason of this 63rd National Series of Cuban baseball. That outcome could take more than nine days, due to inclement weather. This Saturday Artemisa and Santiago de Cuba were unable to play their fourth game of the week, and will have to face each other in another doubleheader tomorrow Sunday starting at 10:00 am. Basically, I will focus the editions of Playoffs Races on the fate of the teams that are seeking qualification, although I also hope to add some random notes.

Here we go, analyzing this Saturday's winners and losers.

Winners who advanced

—Gallos de Sancti Spíritus (beat Camagüey 12-4)

After an inconsistent season, the Gallos have won 10 of their last 12 games and still have a chance to make the playoffs. The 12-4 success this Saturday left Sancti Spíritus one victory away from completing the 5-0 sweep against the Toros de Camagüey. But the most important news is that they advanced to eighth place in the standings with a record of 32-34. As the Gallos won the series 4-1 over Guantánamo, they sent the Indians to ninth place. So, you know how important a victory tomorrow Sunday could be, combined with a loss for the Indians in their difficult challenge against Pinar del Río, the leaders of this regular season.

The Gallos have improved their run average to 6.0 in their last 12 games, in a season where they still have a negative differential of minus-51. Dunieski Barroso has been the inspiration man on offense, slashing .480/.500/.680/1.180, with a home run and eight RBIs in his last 12 games, but the great story of the moment has several protagonists, because he has been the pitching staff. When it seemed that the bullpen would lose effectiveness after Yanielquis Duardo's injury, the Gallos' pitching has managed to stabilize in this last third of the season.

Once again, Yankiel Mauris carried the heavy weight of the relievers and his dominance is key in this final stretch. During the current streak of 10 wins in the last 12 games, Mauris has pitched 15 ⅔ innings in six reliefs, outplaying four of the five starters in the rotation. In that span, he is 2-0, with two saves and a ratio of 14 strikeouts to two walks. Mauris hasn't allowed any earned runs, so his ERA is intact at 0.00, with a 0.96 WHIP. His 60 opponents have hit him for an average of just .241. In terms of controlling the opposition, Mauris was not having his best season heading into this final stretch. His opponents had averaged .345 BABIP.

Assuming Mauris' opponents have posted a .644 OPS—the second-lowest among qualified relievers with at least 100 batters faced this year—the differential versus BABIP is the highest among all relievers. Let's take some examples. Let's look at the five qualified relievers who have allowed the lowest OPS this season, and then analyze their differentials compared to BABIP:

1. Yoandro Daudinot (GTM): .604 OPS, .235 BABIP, .369 DIF

2. Yankiel Mauris (SSP): .644 OPS, .345 BABIP, .299 DIF

3. Adrian Rajiv Sosa (MAY): .670 OPS, .236 BABIP, .433 DIF

4. Pedro Manuel Castillo (VCL): .676 OPS, .296 BABIP, .380 DIF

5. Jesús Quintan (HOL): .707 OPS, .296 BABIP, .412 DIF

As you can see in the differentials (DIF), Mauris's case is the most striking with only .299 thousandths of difference. Yes, that means his opponents have frequently had success against his pitches, at least in terms of balls put into play. We could also add that the Gallos' defense has been ineffective all year.

The BABIP, of course, does not control what hit might have been put out by a league-average fielder, but we have an additional argument: Mauris is the reliever with the fourth-lowest LD% (13.6), and the eighth-most GB% (54.3) allows. How does all this influence his performance? Sancti Spíritus' defense has the 15th worst Defensive Range Factor (4.23) among 16 teams.

With Yanielquis Duardo on the injured list, Yankiel Mauris has once again been the leader of the bullpen at the time when the Gallos de Sancti Spíritus need him most. Photo: Radio Bayamo.

There has been the problem: Mauris has allowed many balls put into play by his opponents, and more than 50% have been grounded. But it is clear that the Sancti Spíritus defense has not been able to register enough outs.

This Saturday the Gallos once again got a quality outing with seven dominant innings from right-hander José Eduardo Santos, who has allowed just four runs (2.35 ERA) in 15 ⅓ innings over his last three starts. The Gallos took a 3-0 lead in the first third of the game. The three runs were driven in by Dunieski Barroso, with a solo home run in the second inning, and a two-run single at the start of the third. The Toros got closer to 3-2 with a double by Rafael Álvarez at the end of the fourth inning, but were unable to score more runs against Santos until the seventh. By then it was too late: Sancti Spíritus bombarded the Toros bullpen with nine runs and 12 hits during the last three innings. In the end, history repeated itself in a different way: Camagüey put 16 runners on base (with 12 hits and four walks), but left 12 in circulation.

Now the Toros (30-36) have lost 16 of their last 19 games, and have fallen to 12th place in the standings. It is now certain that they have lost at least four games of their last four series: 4-1 vs. Industriales at home, 4-1 vs. visiting Las Tunas, 4-1 vs. Santiago de Cuba at home and, until this Saturday, 4-0 vs. Sancti Spiritus. They have scored an average of 3.8 runs and allowed 7.5 in their last 19 games. Do you think that with these results they can still retain hope of returning to the postseason?

Winners who advanced

—Guantánamo Indians (beat Pinar del Río 10-2)

Yes, the Indians have some arrows left! This Saturday they beat Pinar del Río 10-2, taking advantage of the pitches of rookie José Raúl Román and an inefficient relief from the Vegueros. Veteran Robert Luis Delgado led the Indians' attack, driving in half of the runs, while the duo of Orlandis Martínez (allowed one earned run in five innings and struck out six opponents as a starter) and Joel Tejeda (covered the rest of the route without allowing runs and struck out seven rivals in four innings) was in charge of stopping the “greenlegs” offense.

The Indians reached a mark of (32-34), having a ½ game advantage over the Hunters (31-34), who will start tomorrow Sunday in tenth place in the standings. However, as I wrote before, they could not enter the qualifying zone because they lost the series 4-1 against Sancti Spíritus at the beginning of April. That only game they won was by a score of 9-2, to avoid the sweep after four consecutive losses to the Gallos.

Losers who regressed

—Leopards of Villa Clara (lost 6-5 against Mayabeque)

After tying the game at 4-4 on Luis Machado's single in the bottom of the fourth inning, Villa Clara scored just one run the rest of the game. A home run by Osmel Cordero gave the Hurricanes a 6-4 lead at the start of the fifth. The 42-year-old veteran, Yusdel Tuero, won his seventh game after returning to the National Series after 17 years. When Cuban baseball was at a much higher level than it is today, Tuero was a winning pitcher as a starter in the dominant Havana Vaqueros rotation. I perfectly remember his first season in the 44th National Series (2004-2005), when he won 10 consecutive games. Tuero lost his eleventh decision 3-2 against Sancti Spíritus on a night where the Vaqueros were unable to produce against left-handed Ramón Licor at the José Antonio Huelga stadium.

At the end of the campaign, his teammate Yadier Pedroso ended up getting more votes for the Rookie of the Year award. I think that selection was fair, but Tuero undoubtedly also deserved a mention for his brilliant performances on the pitch. Let's remember the numbers of both:

• Yadier Pedroso: 11-4, 2.47 ERA, 113 innings in 17 starts, 2 complete games, one shutout, 90 strikeouts, 50 walks, and two home runs allowed against 481 opponents.

• Yusdel Tuero: 11-1, 2.57 ERA, 87 ⅔ innings in 13 starts, 3 complete games, 48 ​​strikeouts, 23 walks, and five home runs allowed against 360 opponents.

If you saw both of them pitch in that 2004-2005 season, you will remember the big difference between the power of Pedroso's pitches and the artistry that distinguished Tuero with his mix of breaking pitches. Pedroso caused great expectations from the youth ranks, while Tuero truly was a warrior who broke through when manager Estéban Lombillo offered him his first opportunity as a member of the starting rotation.

Tuero's first victory in the National Series came in the Vaqueros' 20th game and, from then on, the contrast in their pitches continued to wreak havoc against each opponent. In a rotation led by Jonder Martínez, Yulieski González, Yadier Pedroso and Kenny Rodríguez—all with fastballs and breaking pitches that commanded respect in the league—Tuero became the sensational pitcher. He then pitched only two more seasons and sealed his history in the National Series with a 24-12 record and a 3.40 ERA without depending on a powerful fastball.

This season, 17 years later, Tuero has recorded a 7-2 record, a contribution that has alleviated the Hurricanes' chaotic season. At 42 years old, he has been the most successful starter in the rotation in winning average (.778) - although his ERA is around 5.00 - and this Saturday he led a success that sent Villa Clara to eleventh place in the Positions table.

Mayabeque has used 11 starters this season, and nine of them have started at least two games. I wonder where they would have been without the contribution of Yusdel Tuero.