Postseason: Guillermo Avilés and the power of three
It's Friday, and we're back to analyze the main moments of this postseason that has been crazy between unexpected errors, comebacks, wild rallies and home runs that are making the scoreboard resound.
Las Tunas 3, Granma 7
Well, this seemed more like a battle between the swing of Guillermo Avilés and the perseverance of 45-year-old left-hander Leandro Martínez against the momentum of the current national champions, the Leñadores de Las Tunas. Avilés drove in five of the Alazanes' first six runs and became the third batter in postseason history with a game of at least three home runs. The previous ones had been Omar Linares (1994 vs. Industriales) and Orestes Kindelán (1996 vs. Villa Clara).
After a loss with the offense absent in Game 1, the Alazanes began the attack in Game 2. At 1-0, Avilés opened the barrage by crushing a fastball from right-hander Leandro Cañada, who attempted a trick in the third top of the strike zone. After one out, the Alazanes made the score 2-0 thanks to a single by Yulieski Remón and a double by Leonardo Alarcón, two promising youngsters who have maximized the productivity of the low round in the lineup.
Two innings later, at the top of the fourth, Las Tunas scored a three-run rally to take a 3-2 lead. Jeans Lucas Baldoquín opened the scoring by hitting an RBI single with two outs, and then Héctor Castillo walked and the bases were loaded.
Leandro Martínez and several Las Tunas hitters were not comfortable with the count of the main umpire, Yanet Moreno. The Leñadores were having their best moment of the game. Yudier Rondón survived on a 3-2 count, and hit a ground ball deep at shortstop. Leonardo Alarcón fielded the bounce, but made a throwing error to first. Rondón arrived at first on time, and the Leñadores scored a couple of runs.
Leandro Martínez, who was looking for his 100th victory and a 1-1 series tie, was not very satisfied with the game situation, but he stopped Las Tunas' rally by dominating the lead off Yuniesky Larduet in a ground ball to third. The Leñadores did not score again in the rest of the game, and the next two appearances at the plate by Guillermo Avilés defined the challenge in favor of the Alazanes.
Avilés came up to the plate at the end of the fourth inning and crunched a changeup by right-hander Annier Pérez on a 1-0 count: the ball ended up on the concrete stands in the right field of the Mártires de Barbados stadium. Granma 4, Las Tunas 4. And Avilés returned to the fray in the bottom of the sixth. But first, Osvaldo Abreu opened the inning with a single to left against right-handed reliever Rubén Rodríguez. Alfredo Despaigne reached base on a walk, and I think pitcher Rodríguez lost his concentration a little, arguing the count with the main umpire, Yanet Moreno.
With Avilés coming to the plate, the Leñadores needed to avoid what, in the end, was inevitable. The Leñadores pitching coach, Rodolfo Correa, went to visit Rubén Rodríguez on the mound. The instructions were clear. The Leñadores needed Rodríguez to maintain focus in a game situation that, in the end, ended up being decisive.
At 1-0, Rodríguez tried to throw an elusive changeup towards the outside corner. But it didn't work and... Dracarys! Avilés' swing came in time to produce another explosion, a three-run home run that took the Las Tunas Leñadores out of the game.
Granma 6, Las Tunas 3: the score presaged the end. While Avilés was running the bases, the joy among the Alazanes de Granma fans was uncontrollable. The hopelessness could be seen on the faces of the Las Tunas players.
With a three-run lead, Granma manager Ángel Ortega decided to begin his bullpen movement with promising rookie Lismay Ferrales, who threw three innings of two hits and allowed no runs.
Leandro Martínez finally achieved his long-awaited 100th victory in the National Series, and I think he will never forget the offensive support of Guillermo Avilés with three home runs and five RBIs. Now Leandro is 2-1 in his three starts, although his opponents are hitting .353 with 30 hits in 20 innings during these playoffs.
I don't know if you've noticed the strangest thing that Martínez's three decisions this postseason have revealed: the last time he won two games in the playoffs was 13 postseasons ago, when he finished with a 2-1 record and a 2.36 ERA in 26 ⅔ innings of four starts during 2012. Leandro Martínez has pitched great games in the playoffs, but unfortunately he has not had any luck getting the wins. Part of it has had to do with the relievers available for the days he has pitched. And, obviously, Granma's offense failed to produce as it did when other pitchers pitched.
That's baseball. Which is why it sounds absolutely incredible that Leandro has had just four decisions in his last 14 starts entering this postseason.
So, congratulations, this looks to be a big postseason year for Leandro Martínez, who has won two games under pressure, taking the mound when the Alazanes have been trailing. Going back to Avilés, he wanted to put into context everything that his impact on offense is meaning:
—In the Quarterfinals against the Matanzas pitchers, he hit two doubles, a key home run in Game 6, and drove in seven runs. Avilés did all that in 32 plate appearances and, get this: the Matanzas pitchers couldn't strike him out!
—That story has not changed after two games in this Semifinal against Las Tunas: Avilés has hit three home runs in his first eight plate appearances, and has five of the seven RBIs that the Granma offense has recorded.
—In summary: Avilés has destroyed the pitching so far in these playoffs, with 2 doubles, 4 home runs and 1,238 OPS. Opponents have struck out just once in 40 plate appearances, and he has recorded 12 RBI.
With all that production, Avilés has somehow avoided the slump of Alfredo Despaigne, who has not hit extra bases or had any RBIs in 41 plate appearances.
This isn't a really surprising story: Avilés has been one of the most consistent hitters of his generation in the postseason. Before these playoffs, he had recorded 13 home runs and 40 RBI in his last 59 postseason games. So, urgently, the Leñadores pitching staff needs to find a formula to prevent Guillermo Avilés from continuing to crush pitches.
Pinar del Río 7, Industriales 6
Finally, after a break that exceeded 15 hours, Pinar del Río completed its second victory in this Semifinal. Four pitches from left-hander Raudel Lazo were enough to dominate Oscar Valdés, who hit a ground ball to third.
The Vegueros of Pinar del Río are leading the series 2-0, and there is no doubt that they are favorites to win this Semifinal against Industriales. However, I think it felt like part of the same flavor of the defeats suffered by the Blues of the Capital against Santiago de Cuba. The mistakes have been more noticeable than the inability to overcome Pinar del Río.
Industriales has lost two games by one run. In baseball, there could be countless arguments for why a game is lost by one run. But when we look at Industriales' two losses, there are enough key details that were exposed.
Game 1: Industriales was one out away from victory and Pinar del Río won in one of the most unexpected ways, when reliever Carlos Manuel Cuesta hit pinch-hitter Yasiel Agete with the first pitch with bases loaded. But before the game led to the Vegueros' comeback during the ninth inning, Industriales had two runners caught at home and one at third. Those outs were half of the six that Pinar del Río starter Mario Valle had. And then the Leones went 1 for 22 against the Vegueros bullpen (left-handers Randy Román Martínez and Raudel Lazo) the rest of the game.
Game 2: Industriales lost by one run, and three of the four errors they committed on defense led to three unearned runs. Yes, in a game without defensive inaccuracies, the Blues would have won 6-4. Pinar del Río's pace of play is designed not to forgive mistakes.
Postseason: An unexpected end
Industriales entered the top of the ninth inning trailing 7-2, and scored four runs. Yasmany Tomás hit his fourth home run of the postseason and brought the Lions within 7-6. When the most worrying point perhaps should be the production of runs against Pinar del Río's pitching, Industriales missed two victories due to defensive errors and ineffective baserunning.
This last argument is easy to appreciate, but when we analyze the situational statistics, it seems to become distorted. Let's look at a simple example here:
Batting with runners in scoring position in this Semifinal
Industriales: .500 (7-for-14)
Pinar del Río: .259 (7-for-27)
The team that seems uncontrollable on offense with runners in scoring position has lost two games.
We analyze the reasons here, but I wanted to show you how relative numbers sometimes are. Industriales has that average because, obviously, he has made the most of those situations with runners in scoring position. But remember that if runners fail to get on base, that average will remain intact.
In Game 1, the Industriales started aggressively against Mario Valle. And after the fourth to ninth innings they couldn't put any runners in scoring position. The statistic was not affected because there was simply nothing else to record. Instead, Pinar del Río, who has had an impressive 92% in contact against Industriales pitchers,* took advantage of every gap to make the decisive runs.
*Pinar del Río's hitters have missed only 10 of the 124 swings they have made to attack Industriales' pitching. Lázaro Benítez (2), Rolando Martínez (2) and Jorge Yoán Rojas (2) are the only ones who have recorded multiple swings and misses.
That's what success in baseball is all about: scoring more and allowing less. The Vegueros have not yet exploded offensively perhaps as expected. They have hit no home runs, and recorded only three extra bases, while Industriales has hit five.
Those are just some numbers, because when it comes to probabilities, it is still striking that Pinar del Río hitters struck out just twice in 85 plate appearances during Games 1 and 2. By the way, in Game 2 the Vegueros received 125 pitches and finished with just 10 swings and misses. Industriales pitchers reached 11 two-strike counts and were unable to strike out any opponents.
Even without playing at his highest level, Pinar del Río showed why he is still a favorite. And, for the second time this postseason, the Industriales' return home could have been on better terms. However, they have once again started down 0-2, with the difference that this time they are facing the best team of the entire season.
