Postseason: Starting Over
After opening down 0-2, Industriales tied the Semifinal against Pinar del Río with their second home win. The Blues of the Capital have overcome two combined 0-5 deficits in this postseason, and this Monday they will seek the sweep as a hume club at the Latin American stadium against the most consistent team of the entire season.
Yes, the supremacy of the Vegueros playing on Sundays ended with 14 consecutive victories in this 63rd National Series of Cuban baseball—a mark that remains a record in the regular season—but the challenge is just beginning. The Semifinal is tied 2-2. Who will take advantage in Game 5? Do you dare to predict?
Semifinal Game 4: Pinar del Río 3, Industriales 4
Series tied 2-2
Key moment
The bottom of the eighth inning, where Industriales decided the game when they took a 4-3 lead. An inning earlier, Pinar del Río had tied the game 3-3 for the second time in the night after two outs, but right-hander Pavel Hernández managed to control the situation. Thus came the key moment of the game. And, for Industriales, the opportunity could not be better, opening the eighth with the “2-3-4” batch in the lineup. Roberto Álvarez, who had scored the three runs for the Lions, reached base for the fourth consecutive time.
Álvarez was aggressive against right-handed reliever Jenier Álvarez. On the first pitch, he hit a line drive between center and left. Center fielder Luis Pablo Acosta moved quickly to his right to prevent the hit from going deep, but on his way he collided with left fielder Yasser Julio González. Even if one of them had caught the ball in time, it seemed unlikely to throw out Alvarez at second.
For Game 3, Álvarez was moved to the second spot in the lineup. As I wrote here in the Game 2 column, it was reasonable for Industriales manager Guillermo Carmona to make lineup changes. Ángel Alfredo Hechevarría had reached base in two of his eight plate appearances during Games 1 and 2 of this Semifinal. Álvarez surpassed that performance in just four plate appearances during Game 4: he doubled and scored on shortstop Tailon Sánchez's fielding error in the first inning.
Then, in the bottom of the third inning with two outs, Álvarez was hit by a pitch from Pinar del Río starter, right-hander Mario Valle. Two pitches later, he scored on Yasmany Tomás' single to deep left field. Álvarez's run to the plate was a show, covering three bases while Tomás couldn't get past first.
Álvarez's third run came in the bottom of the sixth, on a sacrifice fly by Ángel Alfredo Hechevarría, who pinch-hit for Yasiel Santoya. Álvarez was ready to unleash another run toward the plate. Yasmany Tomás was intentionally walked by reliever Yancarlos García, who replaced Jenier Álvarez. Oscar Valdés made a sacrifice bunt and, as happened in the sixth inning, Dayron Miranda made an intentional walk.
With bases loaded and one out, Ángel Alfredo Hechevarría hit his second sacrifice fly of the night and drove in Álvarez, who scored for the fourth time. Industriales took a decisive lead 4-3 and, in the bottom of the ninth, right-hander Pavel Hernández dominated his three opponents to lower the curtains on an exciting Game 4 that was enjoyed by a large fan base at the “Coloso del Cerro.”
MVP of the Game
Roberto Álvarez and Ángel Alfredo Hechevarría. Ángel Alfredo did the job the team expected, two sacrifice flies to give the lead on the scoreboard. But Álvarez's night was key: he scored the team's four runs. Throughout the season, Álvarez has been one of the most consistent and valuable players for Industriales. He has played multiple positions (mostly third base and center field), providing defensive value, excellent range and a powerful arm.
After five seasons in the National Series as a substitute with the Crocodiles of Matanzas, Álvarez has experienced starting this year with Industriales and you probably haven't noticed this: he has played all 86 of the team's games and 97% of the innings on defense (712 of 734).
Before this year, Álvarez had played 184 games in the National Series, an average of 37 and only 35 plate appearances per season. His numbers this year have surpassed the entire statistical line that he accumulated in his career:
In 5 seasons with the Matanzas: .232/.345/.275/.620, with 3 doubles, a triple, a home run, 16 RBI, 38 runs scored and a stolen base.
This year with Industriales: .262/.325/.374/.699, with 15 doubles, a triple, 6 home runs, 47 RBI, 52 runs scored and seven stolen bases.
Álvarez leads the team with 357 plate appearances and 712 innings played throughout the year, is second in runs scored (52), doubles (15), stolen bases (7), and third in hits (86). But the big story here is that, finally, Álvarez has achieved his main goal in Cuban baseball this season: playing every day.
Turning points to consider:
—Manager Guillermo Carmona's offensive strategies worked: There were two decisive moments that marked Industriales' success in Game 4:
1) Bottom of the sixth inning. With runners on first and second, and the score tied 2-2 on William Saavedra's double with two outs in the top of the sixth, Oscar Valdés was being announced to bat. Vegueros manager Alexander Urquiola replaced starter Mario Valle with reliever Jenier Álvarez. While Álvarez made his warm-up pitches, Carmona called Oscar Valdés. One pitch later, the reason for the conversation was clear: Valdés sacrificed himself with a bunt for third, and managed to advance the runners. Valdés has led the Lions' offense this year with 59 RBIs, but he stepped up to the plate in that sixth inning with an 0-for-14 streak in this Semifinal. I'm a staunch critic of the sacrifice bunt in most game situations, especially in Cuban baseball, but I think Carmona's decision was the right one. Valdés also got a sacrifice bunt in the bottom of the eighth, contributing in the inning where Hechevarría drove in the winning run with a sacrifice fly to right field. I have no doubt that Valdés would have wanted to get out of the slump by hitting at least one single, but his two bunt sacrifices were fundamental to making runs.
2) After changing the strategy that he has usually used with Oscar Valdés, Carmona made another opportune move: he replaced Yasiel Santoya with the emerging Ángel Alfredo Hechevarría. Santoya has led the team this year with 17 RBIs that have provided the tie or the lead on the scoreboard for Industriales. However, in this Semifinal he has not been able to contribute to the offense as expected. In 15 plate appearances, Santoya has driven in only one run in this Semifinal, and it was on a grounder to the infield. Ángel Alfredo Hechevarría was also a risky bet for Carmona. Before being removed from the regular lineup in these playoffs, Hechevarría had gone 3-for-25. Carmona made the decision, and Hechevarría, who had driven in the tying or go-ahead run 13 times, responded with two key sacrifice flies.
—Industriales openers continue to provide effectiveness and durability. Right-hander Rafael Orlando Perdomo pitched six innings, allowing just four hits, with one strikeout and one walk. In every inning he put out the first two batters he faced. Before getting the first two outs of the sixth, Perdomo had allowed only one single (he was by Tailon Sánchez in the second inning with two outs). He then dominated the next 12 batters in a row, until Juan Carlos Arencibia singled to left in the top of the sixth with two outs.
The Vegueros took advantage of that moment against Perdomo, and scored the only rally they have achieved in 18 innings during Games 3 and 4. Alexei Ramírez singled, giving way to William Saavedra, who tied the game with a two-run double. Perdomo finished the sixth inning by dominating Jorge Yoán Rojas with a fly out to left. And, in the next inning, he ended his six-inning performance when he walked Yasser Julio González leading off the seventh inning.
Either way, it was a great start for Perdomo, who got 14 of his 18 outs on fly balls. The Vegueros were putting the ball in play, but were not making strong connections. In the end, Perdomo struck out only one of the 23 opponents he faced, Jorge Yoán Rojas leading off the top of the second inning.
To highlight his dominance, that statistic might not seem relevant, but here is the decisive point: they hit him 0-for-7 in two-strike counts.
—Pinar del Río is needing the offense to get going again. If anything characterized the Vegueros offense during the regular season, it was the combination of two potential powerhouses: they led the league in percentage of home runs per plate appearance (3.0 HR%) and were the team that struck out the least (10.0% ). However, after receiving 486 pitches they have yet to hit a home run in this Semifinal against Industriales. The drop in the Vegueros' slugging reveals how effective the Industriales pitchers have been in avoiding hard hits:
Pinar del Río Offensive
Slugging vs. Sancti Spíritus pitchers: .369 SLG, .086 ISO, 6 HR in 6 games.
Slugging vs. Industriales pitchers: .284 SLG, .030 ISO, 0 HR in four games.
Slugging vs. pitchers in the regular season: .484 SLG, .155 ISO, 87 HR in 74 games.
Yes, there are small trends that draw powerful attention: Pinar del Río's offensive production has faded in these first four games against Industriales. Of course, they still have time to resurface, but Industriales' pitching has avoided damage to one of the most powerful lineups of the entire season.
Some of the adjustment they have made can best be seen in the last two games. During the start of the Semifinal in Pinar del Río, the Vegueros struck out only twice in their first 85 plate appearances. They recorded just 10 swings and misses after seeing 125 pitches.
Those numbers began to change in Game 3, to the point that Pinar del Río has scored a run in just three of his last 19 innings on offense. As we have seen here, the extra base drought has been the great failure in the Vegueros' hitting, especially when seeing the high rates of balls put into play:
Industriales pitchers vs. Pinar del Río hitters in this Semifinal
Glossary: WHIFF%: Swing and miss. FPS%: First pitch strike. FPSS%: First pitch swings-strikes. SO%: Strikeouts. LF%: Rate of balls put into play by the left field. RF%: Rate of balls put into play by the right field.
Well, what do we have here?: As you can see, the Vegueros have been more aggressive against the first pitch in the last two games, and the results have not taken the offensive turn they expected. The swing-and-miss rate has increased by 4%, as has the two-strike effectiveness of Industriales pitchers. The big example here was Game 2, where the Vegueros went strikeout-less in 11 two-strike counts. That story has changed since the Lions returned home. You can see the trends: The strikeout rate increased from 2% to 11%. And the other key point here has been positioning. Only 20% of Pinar del Río's fly balls have been hits in the last two games.
Still, the Vegueros' approach at the plate remains the same: try not to hit ground balls. Their batted ball trends over the last two games show signs of some adjustments: They are trying to hit pitches up the middle or to the opposite side of the field:
Batted Ball Percentage: LF% and RF%
Games 1 and 2: 57% hitting left field and 18% hitting right field
Games 3 and 4: 30% hitting left field and 43% hitting right field
It happened with Alexei Ramírez, Jorge Yoán Rojas and William Saavedra: each of them did not try to pull the pitches and they were successful after their first two matches against Perdomo. Pinar del Río will need more of these adjustments, and from now on, Industriales' pitchers will likely rely more on the fastball to define their counts.
—The Lions are hitting in the clutch. One of the big problems that has limited the Vegueros offense in this Semifinal is the poor average of .244 with runners in scoring position. Part of that slump caused manager Alexander Urquiola to substitute Saavedra for a pinch runner in the top of the eighth to try to tie the score. Yasser Julio González singled against Pavel Hernández and tied the game, but the Vegueros could not produce again.
—The Industriales defense has not made mistakes in the last two games. That's great news for the team after so many mistakes. But, there have been plays that could have become outs. The most alarming occurred in the eighth inning when Saavedra hit a grounder to short with potential for a double play. Acevedo fielded the bounce and threw to second as fast as he could, but Alfredo Rodríguez did not find the base in time to step and pivot to first. Rodríguez's almost imperceptible slip gave life to Saavedra at first. And, then, two consecutive hits by Jorge Yoán Rojas and Yasser Julio González contributed to tie the score, 3-3.
—Bullpen vs. Bullpen: The quality outings of Maikel Taylor in Game 3 and Rafael Perdomo in Game 4 have prevented the Industriales bullpen from being exposed. On the other hand, the Pinar del Río bullpen has pitched for an 8.53 ERA at the Latinoamericano stadium. They have allowed seven runs (six earned) in 6 ⅓ innings, although they have not used Raudel Lazo, who could be a key pitcher for Game 5. The relief of Pavel Hernández also helped the Industriales bullpen stay rested heading into to Game 5. So far, the main advantage of the Industriales relievers has been their effectiveness in preventing inherited runners from scoring. Pinar del Río has obtained good relief relays, but in this Semifinal they have not been able to maintain the dominance they achieved against Sancti Spíritus:
Percentage of inherited runners in this Semifinal
Industriales: 82% effectiveness, 11 runners inherited, only two scored.
Pinar del Río: 75% effectiveness, 15 inherited runners, they have scored five.
On countless occasions, relievers cannot prevent their inherited runners from scoring, and those outs in certain situations have made the difference in the game.
A key statistic you should know: In playoffs Semifinals, the team that has achieved victory in Game 5 by 64% has ended up winning the series. And, in the Semifinals between Industriales vs Pinar del Río, that probability has dropped slightly to 60%, with an advantage for the Azules de la Capital 3-2.
Will these odds change?
Box Score
PINAR DEL RIO (3) AT INDUSTRIALES (4)
PINAR DEL RIO AB R H BI INDUSTRIALES AB R H BI
Juan C. Arencibia 4 1 1 0 Roberto Acevedo 4 0 0 0
Alexei Ramirez 3 1 1 0 Roberto Alvarez 2 4 2 0
William Saavedra 4 0 1 2 Yasmany Tomás 3 0 2 1
Jorge Yoan Rojas 4 0 1 0 Oscar Valdes 2 0 0 1
Yaser Julio Gonzalez 3 0 1 1 Dayron Miranda 2 0 0 0
Tailon Sanchez 3 0 1 0 Yasiel Santoya 2 0 0 0
Lazaro E. Blanco 4 0 0 0 Angel A. Hechevarria 0 0 0 2
Luis Pablo Acosta 3 0 0 0 Alfredo Rodriguez 4 0 0 0
Rolando Martinez 2 0 0 0 Ariel Hechevarria 3 0 0 0
Yasiel Agete 1 0 0 0 Alberto Calderon 3 0 0 0
Frank Raul Gonzalez 1 0 0 0
*Mario Sanchez 0 1 0 0
TOTALS 32 3 6 3 TOTALS 25 4 4 4
PINAR DEL RIO 000 002 010 -- 3
INDUSTRIALES 101 001 01x -- 4
LOB--PINAR DEL RíO 6, INDUSTRIALES 6. ERR--Tailon Sanchez.
2B--William Saavedra, Roberto Alvarez (2). HBP--Luis Pablo
Acosta, Roberto Alvarez (2). SACF--Angel A. Hechevarria (2).
SACB--Tailon Sanchez, Oscar Valdes (2). SB--Oscar Valdes,
Yasmany Tomás.
PINAR DEL RIO IP H R ER BB SO HR
Mario Valle 5 3 3 2 0 4 0
Jenier Alvarez (L) 2 1 1 1 1 0 0
Yancarlos Garcia 1 0 0 0 2 0 0
INDUSTRIALES
Rafael Perdomo 6 4 2 2 1 1 0
Pavel Hernandez (W) 3 2 1 1 1 2 0
SO--Luis Pablo Acosta, Jorge Yoan Rojas, Tailon Sanchez,
Ariel Hechevarria, Yasiel Santoya, Dayron Miranda, Roberto
Acevedo. BB--Alexei Ramirez, Yaser Julio Gonzalez, Dayron
Miranda (2), Yasmany Tomás.