Postseason stories: Epic home runs for the ages
For the Houston Astros, Cuban Yordan Álvarez is something of a talisman. He has known how to shine when the team needs it. Isn't that everything you expect from a slugger?
I hope you enjoy this edition of a column that Yirsandy Rodríguez originally wrote this Monday for the Cuban Play-Off Magazine website. We have done our best to translate this story. So any suggestions that might help would be really appreciated. Our idea is to give you more of these fascinating readings of Cuban baseball and Cuban players, both in English and Spanish, so that our readers feel more comfortable. Speaking of baseball, by the way, who will win Game 5 of the ALDS tonight at Yankee Stadium: Yankees or Guardians?
Happy week for everybody!
Sincerely, Inside BaseballdeCuba Team.
By Yirsandy Rodríguez
Yordan Álvarez had only one plan: attack the pitches of Seattle Mariners left-hander Robbie Ray, who was sent to seek the final out of Game 1 against the Houston Astros in the American League Division Series.
The Mariners had a two-run lead, 7-5, and hoped to silence more than 40,000 fans at Minute Maid Park by getting the final out in their first postseason game in 21 years. Yordan Alvarez fouled off a 94 mph sinker that Ray fired into the outside corner. Then, positioned from the far left of the pitching board, Ray relied on another sinker, but the pitch missed catcher Cal Raleigh's glove: Yordan's swing sent the ball 438-ft into the second deck of right field.
Walk-off home run! Yordan did it again! The Astros sensationally won Game 1, 8-7!
Yordan Álvarez's home run was an epic hitting piece in postseason history: It was the first walk-off home run to pulverize a multi-run lead.
That's what the skill and talent of great hitters are all about: squashing pitchers' mistakes at the key moment. Ray, Raleigh, and the Mariners didn't just take a chance on selecting another sinker after starting ahead 0-1 in the count: the slip in command was fateful.
It may seem like a stretch, but missing a pitch by a few inches can lead, as we saw, to a connection where the swing hits the ball with the sweet spot. Here's a chart that reveals how much a command error against Yordan Álvarez has cost Major League pitchers:
Analyzing the graph from the catcher's perspective, you can see a .112 average (16 HRs of 143 batted balls) in the lower strike zone through the center. The next zone to the left is 54% less likely, at .061 (6-for-99). That slight difference indicates that if Ray's pitch had been placed a few inches out, Yordan probably wouldn't have been able to hit that brutal 117 mph fly ball, which stayed only 4.6 seconds in the air. However, what has transpired in an even more memorable and spectacular feat of Yordan Álvarez's swing, has not been those honorable nuggets provided by StatCast.
To the satisfaction of the Houston Astros, the great work of the natural slugger from Las Tunas is his ability to inspire and tow the team in the unpredictable scenario of the postseason. After producing the electrifying walk-off home run in Game 1, when the Astros were one out from losing, “Air Yordan” starred in another glorious chapter: his deadly twist of the wrists made the difference with another home run in Game 2.
The Mariners were leading 2-1 in the bottom of the sixth when Astros leadoff hitter Jeremy Peña reached first on a single, a 71.3 mph fly ball that, with two outs, had to be sacked by second baseman Adam Frazier or center fielder. Julio Rodríguez. As the inning extended, star Luis Castillo, who pitched to get the third out — Peña's hit projected only a 45% success rate — had to challenge Yordan Álvarez.
What happened in another key situation of the challenge? The same count repeated itself…as did the sequence. Castillo threw a 98.4 mph first sinker, which Yordan fouled out. Unlike southpaw Robbie Ray, who delivered a sinker from the outside left spot, Castillo was positioned on the right. That way, if he decided to throw into the low-out zone, the first step in the Dominican ace's strategy was deductible: prevent Yordan from pulling.
That didn't seem like a bad prospect, especially coming from Luis Castillo, who had given up just 14 home runs in 2022 and none of his opponents hit him to the opposite field. The last batter to homer off Castillo was Juan Soto, who homered off a 98.5 mph sinker at Great American Ball Park. As a very interesting additional fact, Soto and Yordan Álvarez have been the most relentless left-handed hitters in the Majors, producing home runs to the opposite side of the park.
Here are the leaders among qualified hitters with at least 100 combined home appearances since 2021:
Of course, Soto was busy as he helped the San Diego Padres get the Dodgers into the playoffs from home. So who could be the next batsman to crack a steaming Castillo sinker? Did you need an introduction?: Yordan Álvarez!
Yordan devoured another elite pitch, a sinker from Castillo at 98.3 mph, blasting a 371-foot homer into left field at Minute Maid Park. Astros 3, Mariners 2, anticipated the end from that second third of the game. In the eighth inning, Jeremy Peña reached base again and Yordan Álvarez stepped up to the plate, but Seattle manager Scott Servais chose what would be the most appropriate pitch: he ordered an intentional walk with the first occupied, a move that had not been seen before. 19 years, when Barry Bonds was practically unstoppable.
The Astros ultimately won Game 2, 4-2, then completed the sweep with a 1-0, 18-inning win in Game 3 on Saturday at Seattle's T-Mobile Park. Yordan Álvarez was without a doubt the most valuable player, securing a couple of decisive hits with two unforgettable home runs.
In just eight trips to the plate, Yordan posted a cumulative 1.4 WPA (Winning Probability Added), the best of all time, according to Baseball-Reference's archives. Furthermore, as if that weren't enough, he far surpassed Ken Griffey Jr.'s performance among players under 25 years of age.
The Houston Astros are waiting for their next rival to discuss the American League title, which will be the winner of Game 5 this Monday between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians. And, if they are in such a comfortable position, it has been once again for each epic swing of Yordan Álvarez.
(Photo: Yordan Álvarez/Getty Images)