Previous view: No. 6, Tigres de Ciego de Ávila

A look at each team before Opening Day of the Cuban Elite Baseball League.

Inside BDC is back! I took a little break for a lot of things. I'm doing a big compilation of stats and other crazy stuff that's been going on. This will be my eighth season alongside Ray Otero on BaseballdeCuba.com. I'm very happy about that! So we'll be sharing some columns here and on BDC. We're 35 days away from Opening Day, so we have plenty of time to discuss what's coming up in Cuban baseball. I won't just be writing about the pace of the Elite League. I also hope to bring some surprises I've been working on. About the "Preview" columns, I'll be back on Monday in the backward order. The next team will be Santiago de Cuba.

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Even if it sounds fun to many, it is impossible to predict baseball. But something was clear last night during the selection of ten reinforcement players by the six teams classified to the III Cuban Baseball Elite League: the Leñadores de Las Tunas are still the team to win.

Do you think it is too early to try to predict who will be the main contestants? Here, we will discuss the “before” and the “after” of the selection of reinforcements. Now, let's analyze the main strengths of the teams and the points that could be worrisome.

As expected, the pitchers were under the radar of the managers throughout the night. It is enough to remember that the average league in the last National Series amounted to 5.29 ERA. In the end, 60% of the 60 chosen reinforcements were pitchers: 18 openers and 18 relievers—although there are pitchers who made both roles.

The rest of the elections were 24 position players, with a predominance of five orders and 10 players that usually cover the central line. The surprise of the night was that no team needed to choose a first base. I will start my analysis for the same places that each team occupied in the last 63 National Series. I will write a daily column.

I hope you enjoy it. Play Ball!

5. Tigres de Ciego de Ávila (41-34)

Manager: Danny Miranda.

Reinforcements for positions: 2B (1), 3B (1), of (3), DH (1), SP (2), RP (2).

Reinforcements chosen by Ronda

1- Frederich Cepeda (Sancti Spíritus), DH

2- Luis Antonio González (Camagüey), RF

3- Rodolexis Moreno (Sancti Spíritus), 3B

4- Yankiel Mauris (Sancti Spíritus), RP

5- José Isaías Grandales (Sancti Spíritus), SP

6- Yoasán Guillén (Mayabeque), CF

7- Leonelkis Escalante (Guantánamo), CF

8- Emilio Tórres (Camagüey), 2B

9- Osdanis Rodríguez (Villa Clara), SP

10- Leonardo Moreira (Guantánamo), RP

What they were looking for?: Manager Danny Miranda wasted no time in choosing everything he could get his hands on! The Tigers suffered multiple key player losses before making their 22-man roster official. Osvaldo Vazquez, Raul Gonzalez, Ruben Valdez, Liosvany Perez, and Alexander Jimenez were the main players in the Tigers' offensive line in the last National Series. The pitching rotation will be without right-handers Dachel Duquesne (9-6 in 17 starts) and Rookie of the Year Ediel Ponce (8-3 in 15 starts). They combined for 39% of the team's wins.

Ten reinforcements weren't enough for the Tigers, but they did at least offer a bit more solidity to their roster. Miranda will have the legendary Frederich Cepeda as his designated hitter. He managed to resolve his position player priorities with infielders Rodolexis Moreno and Emilio Torres—I'll get back to Moreno in a minute. He also reinforced the outfield with Luis Antonio González, Yoasán Guillén, and Leonelkis Escalante.

The presence of Gonzalez in left field, Guillen in center field, and Hector Labrada in right field gives the Tigers defensive coverage that exceeds the league level. However, I think much of the defensive key will be in the performance of the infielders. Ronaldo Castillo will likely return to third base. Jorge Luis Contreras and Emilio Torres will cover second base, and Rodolexis Moreno may end up playing shortstop.

Yes, Rodolexis played more third base last year. But he hasn't been able to solve his defensive problems. He committed 15 errors in 176 chances, yielding a dismal .915 fielding percentage. His RF (defensive range factor) finished at 3.72. But now comes the unexpected: Moreno was a better fielder as a shortstop last year.

There's a lot to analyze about that case because normally it's harder for infielders to master the defensive work as a shortstop. Maybe his ability to react better suits playing as a shortstop, a few feet further from third base and at a different angle. I think the key has been there, in the timing to read the ground balls and react.

Moreno often struggles to field bunts, though most of his errors tend to be on throws. I've seen him fail on routine plays where his throwing mechanics have gone off balance. Still, the numbers say he was more efficient as a shortstop during his senior season. Playing shortstop was a defensive relief for Moreno, who finished with a 6.04 RF. He made nearly twice as many plays as he averaged as a third-baseman. His warrior spirit shined brightest there.

When Moreno played third base, batters had a 31% hit probability. That rate dropped to 28.7% when he played shortstop during the 2024 season. That may seem like just a slight numerical difference. But in baseball, one small slip-up can send a win spiraling out of reach. We'll see what happens in the future.

The Tigers' starting rotation needs a boost from Luis Alberto Marrero. Photo: Osvaldo Gutiérrez.

Main strengths after the reinforcements?: Improved the starting rotation, and added one of the best relievers in the league. Right-handers Osdanis Rodriguez and Jose Isaias Grandales will join Kevin Soto and Luis Alberto Marrero to make up the four-man starting rotation. If you ask me what problems I see coming, I'd sum it up like this: Grandales (6.6 K/9) is the only one with the ability to get swings and misses above the league average. The others don't get above a 4.3 K/9. In baseball, when you can't avoid contact often, then you rely on defense, luck, and even karma.

With four games in a series, manager Danny Miranda will have to decide who will be the fifth starter on the staff. The advantage, in a way, is that the Tigers will also have Sancti Spiritus right-hander Yankiel Mauris, who usually pitches multi-inning relief.

With four games per series, Danny Miranda will have to decide who will be the fifth starter on the staff. The advantage, in a way, is that the Tigers will also have the right-hander from Sancti Spiritus, Yankiel Mauris, who usually pitches multi-inning relief.

Regarding offensive potential, Miranda has several options to take advantage of hitters with contact ability and speed. Rodolexis Moreno and Ronaldo Castillo could form a good duo to start the lineup, followed by Luis Antonio Gonzalez and Hector Labrada. The Tigers would have four fast runners lined up, to give way to Frederich Cepeda and Jonathan Bridon, two of the hitters with more power. Yoasan Guillen seems to be the perfect hitter to occupy the ninth turn due to his speed, looking to maintain the offensive rhythm.

Of course, one of the key at-bats will go to the batter positioned behind Cepeda because of what you already know: Even at 44, he drew a .557 OBP and walked 32% of his 307 plate appearances in the past 63rd Cuban National Series. If it's about numbers and quality at-bats, then Labrada should be the one chosen to cover Cepeda, as he averaged .353 with runners in scoring position. How did Bridón fare in that same situation? He hit a poor .217.

What could still raise questions: Bullpen stabilization. This is a big problem, as Ciego de Ávila's win probability in the last National Series was driven by the durability of its starters. In the 2024 regular season, the Tigres' starters covered 63.2% of the 630 ⅔ innings logged by the team. Being as objective as realistic, repeating that percentage in a league with a four-game series does not seem likely for Ciego de Ávila's pitching staff.

The Tigres will have Yankiel Mauris as the main figure in the bullpen, but they need help. They did not acquire more elite relievers. They do not have left-handed pitchers for key situations. Miranda needs the best version of Yunier Batista, Liomil González, and Guantánamo reinforcement Leonardo Moreira. Otherwise, the offensive-defensive combination will have to lead the way to success.