Seven contenders: Analyzing the case of each team
14 of the 16 teams in this 63rd National Series have 13 games left to play to finish the regular season. The Pirates of the Island and the Lumberjacks of Las Tunas are the only teams that have a postponed series, and for that reason they have 18 games left.
Mathematically speaking, you might hear that Mayabeque and Sancti Spíritus could still make the playoffs, but the odds are very slim. Here are the reasons: like every year, there is a number of victories that becomes the common denominator for the contenders. “39” is the most appropriate number I think for this year. With 13 games left, there are six teams that, playing for a 5-8 record, would reach 39 victories: Pinar del Río, Las Tunas, Granma, Industriales, Santiago de Cuba and Ciego de Ávila. In other words, if none of those teams collapse, there would be two qualifying spots left to be defined to complete the eight.
Matanzas and Artemisa have high probabilities of qualifying, but they would have to play for more than .500 (with at least seven wins in their last 13 games) and thus stay away from possible multiple ties. The cases of Camagüey and Guantánamo seem more difficult, although they will also have mathematical possibilities if they play at the level of elite teams in their last 13 games.
The odds for Villa Clara, Sancti Spíritus and Mayabeque are not enough to simply win the remaining series: they will have to extend winning streaks and, as often happens at this point, wait to see how their closest rivals fare in the standings. Starting Tuesday we will have interesting news, since Villa Clara will visit Mayabeque this week.
Let's review the cases of the seven teams that, according to the probabilities, will fight to keep the last two tickets to the postseason.
The case of Matanzas
The Crocodiles are 32-30 and are just coming off a week where they won a crucial series against the Artemisa Hunters 3-2. This week, they will face the Holguín Cubs, who have won just two of their last 10 games. Matanzas' offense scored 31 runs in five games against Artemisa last week, while the pitching—with just eight pitchers, four of them making multiple appearances—posted a 3.56 ERA. The Crocodiles slashed .366/.400/.470 with 60 hits and 13 extra bases in five games.
Except Yadil Mujica, all Matanzas hitters got at least one RBI last week. The Crocodiles' offense hit at a good pace—they hit .316 with runners in scoring position—and that's great news for manager Armando Ferrer. The other key point was defense: they committed only three errors and made 11 double plays in five games last week.
Matanzas has to face Holguín, then visit Camagüey in what will be another key series, and they will finish the regular season hosting Mayabeque to play three games at home. With a 7-6 record in their last 13 games, there is a good chance that the Crocodiles will be among the eight qualifiers for the postseason.
The case of Artemisa
After a week in which the staff pitched to a 5.79 ERA and allowed an opposing offensive line of .366/.400/.470 against Matanzas, alarm bells have inevitably gone off. The Cazadores will face a key series this week against Santiago de Cuba at the Guillermón Moncada stadium, but that is only the first of several challenges that lie ahead: they have two difficult challenges left to overcome at home, five games against the Leñadores de Las Tunas and three against the Vegueros of Pinar del Río. With a record of 31-31, Artemisa will need to win at least 8 of its last 13 games to avoid a three-way tie with Camagüey and Guantánamo, who won the series against them 3-2, respectively.
The case of Guantánamo
The Indians have a record of 30-32—they are tied with the Toros de Camagüey—and have registered a plus-21 differential. Surprisingly, you could say, they come from a week where they won 4-1 in the series against Ciego de Ávila. They are one game away from reaching the Artemisa Hunters, and two from Matanzas. In the last 14 years they have never had more hopes of making the playoffs. We'll see if they can stay among the contenders. Guantánamo will face Pinar del Río this week at home. The Indians' last two series will be on the road: five games against the Pirates and three against the Wasps.
The case of Camagüey
The Toros have a 30-32 record and are one game away from entering the qualifying zone. However, the team is going through one of its worst moments this season. They have lost eight of their last 10 games, and are having the worst performance (2-10) in this third third of the season. Of course, despite having lost the series 4-1 last week against Santiago de Cuba, the Toros pitching posted a 2.87 ERA in 47 innings—including two extra innings. So, the Bulls' big problems continue to be in offensive production. Last week they scored just 20 runs in five games—six of them due to defensive errors by Santiago de Cuba—and produced a poor .197 batting average with runners in scoring position. Yordanis Samón drove in 50% of the runners he found in scoring position, but the rest of the lineup left 56 of the 66 runners they found on base. The three remaining series for the Toros will be a challenge: they will visit the Gallos this week, and then they will host Matanzas and Ciego de Ávila.
The case of Villa Clara
The challenge of reaching the playoffs seems more difficult for Villa Clara (29-33), but the Leopardos have a finish against three of the last four teams in the standings: they will visit Mayabeque this week, they will play next against Cienfuegos in home, and finish the regular season as visitors against Holguín. Without disparaging any of these rivals, I think this finale offers a great opportunity for Villa Clara.
The case of Sancti Spíritus
The Gallos are in a great moment after beating Industriales 3-2, but if they have aspirations of reaching the playoffs, they will have to win their last three series. The main challenge will be this week with the visit of the Camagüey Bulls. The Gallos will have to face Holguín as visitors, and then finish the three-game series against the Elephants at home.
The case of Mayabeque
I am not dismissing the possibility of Mayabeque, because we know that in baseball nothing is set in stone. However, the road for the Hurricanes is quite difficult and their reaction has been late: they have to play against Villa Clara at home, and they end up as visitors in Ciego de Ávila and Matanzas. Both Villa Clara, Sancti Spíritus and Mayabeque will need a combination of at least 10-3 or 9-4 in their last 13 games to hope for a playoff berth.
Yes, maybe it's more, maybe it's less: baseball is unpredictable. Let's wait and see what happens in these last three weeks of the regular season.
