The curse of the Indians
They say that 13 is the unlucky number.
The Guantánamo Indians have not qualified for the postseason for 13 years. Could it be that in this 63rd National Series of Cuban baseball they will be able to break that curse? Since that Quarterfinal series that they lost against Alfredo Despaigne and the Alazanes de Granma in 2011, Guantánamo has not reached the promised land.
Guantánamo also did not qualify for the Second Phase during the “Reinforcements Era” between 2012 and 2020. The team's best performance was two consecutive ninth places in the season during the 55th and 56th National Series. After those two seasons under manager Jorge Rubén Prevot, the Indians have had the worst results in the league. Among the 16 teams, they finished 15th, 14th, 16th, 16th, 15th, and 16th. As you can see, they have been last in the league in three of the last four years.
After a four-season stint as manager, Prevot finished his tenure with a record of 81-99. He was 18 games shy of .500, which seems disappointing, but it was a great job compared to the chaos that unfolded. The next three Indians managers combined for a 112-246 record.
Yes, 134 games under .500:
—Roberto Borrero (one season): 14-31, .311 winning average
—Eduardo Pavó (two seasons): 27-63, .300 winning average
—Agustín Lescaille (three seasons): 71-152, .318 winning average
Borrero and Pavó were debut managers, and they could not change the history of losing seasons. Then Agustín Lescaille, the former star first baseman of the Indians, took the reins of the team again. Lescaille had posted a winning record (238-225) in five seasons (2007-2012), and led the Indians to the postseason twice in a row.
Those have been the only two seasons the Indians have made the playoffs over the last 24 years. The first of them was in the 49th National Series, but they ended up being swept by the Tigres de Ciego de Ávila in four games during the Quarterfinal series. In the following season, they were on the verge of eliminating the Alazanes de Granma in the Quarterfinals, but they lost Games 6 and 7. Yes, Game 6 of that playoff was the one that Alfredo Despaigne decided with two key home runs against the right-handed Dalier Hinojosa.
At the end of four campaigns, the experiment with Lescaille did not work. The team was very different from the generation he had coached in the late 2000s. Certainly, it seemed as if he no longer connected in the same way that he did with his former players. Four years ago, when I spoke with Lescaille on the Opening Day of the 60th National Series, he assured me that renewal was the way to develop new talents.
Difficult times were ahead.
During these last three seasons, part of that process has been completed. Thus, after Lescaille's departure, the next move seemed reasonable: bringing Jorge Rubén Prevot back to the bench, who was replaced at his best moment as manager.
The results up to this 56th game of the regular season have been encouraging. Prevot has achieved a remarkable team work between his young players and his veterans. The trust placed in rookies like shortstop Greyson Bergery and third baseman Yorlis Rodríguez has paid off. Historically, Guantánamo teams have been characterized by their offense. However, plate discipline and hitting with runners on base have been the two most effective aspects of these Indians.
Last season, Guantánamo was the worst team in the league in batting average, slugging percentage and rate of extra bases connected with runners on base. This year those results have taken a significant turn: the Indians began this week with the eleventh highest slugging percentage and the eighth best rate of extra base hits with men in circulation.
Veteran Robert Luis Delgado leads the lineup with 46 RBIs—15 of which have provided a tie or lead on the scoreboard for the Indians. Although Over Cremet's 13 home runs have impacted the offense — the rest of the team has 14 home runs in 1,934 plate appearances combined — Leonelkis Escalante (.358) and Leovanni Brooks (.423) stand out as the most productive hitters in clutch situations. Cremet has hit a poor .153 with runners in scoring position. In clutch situations, he has hit only four of his home runs in key moments to produce a tie or lead.
So, in terms of offensive productivity, the improvements have been decisive for the Indians' rise. The other point that is sometimes omitted is defense, and this year the Indians have also made a leap in quality compared to the league level. Starting with catcher Yasmany Velázquez, all infielders and regular outfielders have projected positive percentages in Range Factor and the probability of hits allowed.
After playing without errors this Saturday against Villa Clara, the Indians appear in fourth place in fielding percentage (.970), and have been the third team with the highest rate of manufactured double plays (3.8). As the defense has extended its stability, the Indians' pitchers have gotten out of trouble. The presence of catcher Velázquez has been another determining factor in the victories, strengthening the central defensive line.
I think this pair of positive and negative statistics have become the turning point in pitching:
—Negative: The Indians' pitching is the second worst in the league in walk rate per nine innings with 5.6.
—Positive: As I wrote before, the Indians' defense is the third most efficient at creating double plays.
—Negative: Indians pitching began this week allowing a .398 OBP, fourth-highest in the league (.388). Of course, a large percent of that number of runners on base is due to the high walk rate.
—Positive: No team has managed to dominate more than the Guantánamo pitchers in clutch situations! How can it be possible? Yes, they have gotten into trouble, but opponents have left 68.4% of runners on base. That effectiveness is a fundamental part of what manager Jorge Rubén Prevot needs to continue fighting for qualification for the playoffs.
The Indians started this regular season 6-11 in March, but have then improved to 20-19 the rest of the way. This month they have a record of 11-6, and the most revealing thing is that they have won important series against elite teams.
After Guantánamo's defeat this Saturday by 7-4 against Villa Clara, both teams appear tied in tenth place in the standings with a record of 26-30. The Indians have accumulated a positive differential of plus-13, while Villa Clara has a negative record of minus-7. The big news here is that the Indians are just two games behind the Toros de Camagüey (28-28), ninth place in the standings in this 63rd National Series. The difference compared to Artemisa (29-27) and Matanzas (29-27) is three games.
As for this year's matchups, the Indians have a few things going for them:
1) They won the series 3-2 against Matanzas and Artemisa, so a draw would favor the Indians.
2) They have the series tied 1-1 against Santiago de Cuba, and their three-game matchup is scheduled for the last series of this regular season.
3) The Indians are tied 2-2 in the series against Villa Clara, another of the rivals that is trying to advance among the best eight positions.
So, you know what that point number 3 means: A success this Sunday could be key for the Indians if they try to maintain their postseason aspirations.
