The failure of the I Elite League of Cuban Baseball
Deeply analyzing the void that the I Cuban Baseball Elite League (I ELCB) left us, without even meeting the less demanding expectations of the baseball fanatics.
In the last two months, several friends and readers have sent me questions about the first edition of the Cuban Baseball Elite League (ELCB): what will be the future of the league? How does the founding of the league help while the National Series is going through its worst historical moment in terms of the general level? To what extent did the supposed concentration of quality in the six competing teams benefit the show?
By the end of the regular season, we could answer some of those questions. One of the most recurrent was how much this I ELCB (I Elite League of Cuban Baseball) had attracted the fans, and I think that the numbers of public attendance at baseball parks have been scandalously bad:
Approximate attendance at baseball parks in different geographical areas of Cuba during the ELCB regular season:
Total average: 824
Baseball parks located in the Western region of the country: 153
Baseball parks located in the Central region of the country: 193
Baseball parks located in the Eastern region of the country: 480
As can be seen, the ELCB barely caught the attention of fans in the Western region, with a disappointing average attendance of 153 fans per game, according to the event's official Box Scores.
In the Central zone of the country, the average had a slight increase. But most notably, while the ELCB regular season was being played, baseball's Provincial Series in each province drew much more crowds to the ballparks. The most crowded stadium was the Cándido González park, where an average of 3,040 fans was quantified in five games. This was followed by the Julio Antonio Mella stadium (2,300), on September 5 stadium (1,667), and the Calixto García stadium (1,560), with the only average attendance of over 1,000 fans.*
*Yes, perhaps you noticed that trend again: none of these stadiums is located in the western zone, so both Portuarios and Tabacaleros could not count on sufficient support in their headquarters.
Last week, I discussed this trend with my friend Carlos Huerta, one of the faithful administrators of the “Proud of Cuban Baseball” Facebook group, and offered him my views on it. The preference of fans to visit the parks where the Provincial Series were being played has not only been driven by the sense of belonging: there are also other aspects such as the transportation situation that, beyond the capital, is usually an obstacle. for the fans.
So, if we add to situations of this magnitude that the fans have not been familiar with the teams of the so-called Elite League, it is fair to remember one of our most recurring questions about this event: wasn't it an expected result?
If the ELCB teams do not have the main Cuban stars today or the most sought-after prospects, it is quite difficult for the fans to follow the actions of teams without a tradition in Cuban baseball.*
*You know what? I dusted off some files from the first Cuban Baseball Super League, and the average number of fans was 40% higher than this edition of the I ELCB: 1,400 fans per game and multiple attendances with more than 5,000 fans. Well, of course, one of the reasons was to find duels like Pedro Luis Lazo vs. José Ibar, or Ibar himself vs. Maels Rodríguez or challenging Norge Luis Vera, or Adiel Palma vs. Faustino Corrales in one of the ideal left-handed vs. left-handed duels in those early 2000s. Look, Occidentales did not have the most fearsome lineup, and this could happen to any pitcher in the league defending a minimal advantage: facing a bout with Michel Abreu, Amaury Cazañas, Vaisel Acosta, and Juan Manrique from Matanzas team, part of the elite sluggers in those years, which sounded terrifying.
All these results of the present could be seen coming from the making of the teams, the controversy over their names, and, later, the scandal that unleashed the delay of the opening day because the uniforms and part of the implements had not arrived on time.
As for the expected concentration of current quality in the league, it is difficult to trust the results offered by the statistics. The regular season was played with the Teammate-120 ball, which seriously influenced the production of home runs and extra bases. In the end, the numbers show that the few flashes of power weren't really due to frequent pitching dominance. On this point, there are enough trends to present an objective analysis: batters hit fly balls on 50.4% of their balls put into play and were only able to hit the ball out of bounds for every 43.7 fly balls hit.
That average doubled the frequency of a home run for every 22.9 fly balls hit in the past 61 Cuban Baseball National Series (61st CNS). Well, someone could say: "the effectiveness of the pitching generated that low average."
Do you think it is reasonable? I don't believe it.
In my opinion, the fact that pitchers can't force hitters to hit more ground balls than fly balls suggests some widespread inefficiency in hitters' swing ability. Then, throughout the regular season in this ELCB, you find pitchers averaging only 4.2 K/9 and a high 9.5 H/9, pretty similar results to the last 61 CNS: 4.5 K/9 and 10.4. H/9.
In terms of control and reduction of walks, the pitchers did show improvements, lowering their walk rate from 4.5 BB/9 to 3.4. So the fact that he struck out little was a secondary point compared to the impact provided by the consistent defense. And, of course, it is fair to add that the use of a ball that did not favor the offense also played a role.
In turn, the misalignment of the batters in key situations was a pending issue for almost all the teams. I was surprised when I researched the efficiency of teams in terms of RBIs per baserunner:
Tabacaleros: 15.1%
Agricultores: 14.3%
*League average: 14.1%
Portuarios: 14.0%
Ganaderos: 14.0%
Cafetaleros: 13.8%
Centrales: 13.4%
Facing the playoffs starting next Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. (local time in Havana, Cuba), this percentage tells us why Tabacaleros could be a tough opponent against the regular season leaders, the Agricultores team: they had the most outstanding lineup moving runners on the bases and driving in runs. Tabacaleros' great potential lay in the ability of their runners, who often exploited the fundamentals of the game by frequently earning an additional base.
Continuing with the analysis of the “defunct” elite level: can we believe that there were potential promotions for ELCB pitchers when the average fastball was around 84-85 mph, and pitches over 95 mph were infrequent? Has the poor success of the sluggers who excelled in the 61st CNS been overshadowed by pitchers with wide repertoires, who mastered at least three types of elite pitching? Undoubtedly, the statistics and the tangible reality have taken different paths in this regard.
There have been appreciable individualities. Yes, pitchers who showed their talent and determination like the right-hander from Mayabeque, José Ignacio Bermúdez, who led the league with a 4-1 record, two games saved, and a millimeter ERA of 1.02. But... if we dive into detailing Bermúdez's formula for success, who was practically unbeatable in high-pressure situations on the mound*, it is easy to see a pattern in the dominant tendencies of Cuban baseball pitchers today: in 53 innings, Bermúdez threw rates of 3.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9, the product of 21 strikeouts and 23 walks.
*Bermúdez was the qualified pitcher with the lowest batting average allowed (.205) of his opponents in situations where he pitched with the game tied, or a difference of one to three runs, both ahead and behind his team on the scoreboard.
What was the secret of his dominance?: He allowed ground balls on 52.7% of the 165 balls that his 212 opponents could play for him, only five extra bases (two doubles and three triples), and the defense made 3.2% of plays for him. double play, with a .980 fielding average.
Granted, maybe the path lies in throwing fewer pitches, which leads to striking out fewer batters, but it helps pitchers go further innings with fewer pitches accumulated in a game. However, today, the global trend for pitchers is to strike out and eliminate as many balls as possible. But that, for now, has been an uncharted path for ELCB pitchers.
For the playoffs, another ball will be played, the Teammate-190, a change that could fuel the offense's poor impact. Perhaps, in the coming postseason phase, attendance at baseball parks will improve. Even so, in any case, the great failure of this first edition of the Cuban Baseball Elite League deserves an exhaustive analysis: there was no show, nor did the presence of the main players of the league in new teams by region captivate the fervent baseball fans in Cuba.
Yirsandy, this is a really good, strong column on the Elite League. Your statistics -- from the attendance figures to the "powerless" hitting -- are very convincing.
Now, I have some thoughts on all this.
But first, let me say that real baseball fans in Cuba should not take me too seriously, for I am a relative newcomer to Cuban baseball. I have actually been paying close attention to it only the last two or three years.
I'm an old guy, a mostly-retired journalist, and lifelong baseball fan who lives in Iowa in the middle of the U.S. I've only been to Cuba once -- in the early spring of 2017 -- but I fell in love with your country. I recognize the many challenges you all face, and I know the foreign policy of my own nation toward Cuba has been very unneighborly, to say the least.
But let's forget politics and government for a bit here, and get back to baseball.
As I came to understand more what baseball in Cuba is all about, I've loved the idea of the 16 provinces each having their own professional teams. As I came to understand the National Series, I realized it would have all 16 teams facing each other, home & away. Then the playoffs would come, resulting in the Cuban championship. Right? And from what I've seen, heard and read, the people of Cuba love that. Right?
Here's another idea: For us fans of Cuban baseball living in the U.S., the scheduling of the regular seasons from late November to February, and then the playoffs, was perfect! We could be excited about Cuban baseball through our dreary winter months up here. Then your playoffs and championship would be determined about the time the U.S. college and professional teams were starting up their seasons.
Of course, when you have a "Baseball World Classic," a new "Elite League," or maybe even an Olympics come along, it really messes up the baseball schedule worldwide, but I think especially so in Cuba.
What I would urge your Commissioner, or whoever is in charge, to consider is that the National Series of Cuba, featuring the 16 provincial teams, is a very precious level of baseball. He (or she) should do everything in his (or her) power to protect it!
I believe that if it is promoted correctly, it could develop a global following. Many fans from around the world would love coming to Cuba during the northern hemisphere's winter, travel your beautiful island, go to games in each of those 16 stadiums, and spend a lot of money all along the way -- game tickets, hotels, food, rental cars, fuel and more.
In fact, if the schedule will allow for that, I intend to make just such a trip in early 2024! And I hope I can write columns about Cuban baseball and life in Cuba, from each of the 16 provinces. I'll be working to improve my Spanish between now and then.
Just don't let an "Elite League" or a "Baseball World Classic" wreck the schedule of what seems to me could be one of the best baseball experiences on Earth!
Play ball!
--Chuck Offenburger, Jefferson and Des Moines, Iowa, U.S.. www.offenburger.com, chuck@offenburger.com.