The Gentlemen and the Thunder
A Midseason MVP Study of Judge and Raleigh
On golden afternoons at Yankee Stadium, when the summer sun hangs low over the right-field bleachers, Aaron Judge stands at the plate like a redwood among saplings. Five hundred miles northwest, in the damp marine air of T-Mobile Park, Cal Raleigh squats behind home plate with the patient menace of a blacksmith waiting for his hammer.
These two men—one a colossus, the other a craftsman—have spent the first half of the 2025 season engaged in a quiet duel of sublime offensive artistry. Let us examine how baseball’s most irreconcilable talents have arrived at this shared summit.
But before we get to the chicken in the chicken rice, I wanted to share with you some of the impressive records broken by “Big Dumper” this season:
• ON PACE: Cal Raleigh is on pace to hit 67 home runs this season, which would be the most in American League history and the third-most home runs in a season in MLB history, behind only Barry Bonds-SF (73 in 2001) and Mark McGwire-STL (70 in 1998). He's also on pace to collect 121 runs, 31 doubles, 143 RBIs, 19 stolen bases, and 399 total bases. Cal Raleigh leads American League catchers in votes (1,901,389) by more than a million votes over the next-place finisher, Alejandro Kirk-TOR (757,659).
• A SEASON FOR THE HISTORY. In his first 77 games this season, Cal Raleigh is hitting .281 (81-for-288) with 58 runs, 15 doubles, 32 home runs, 69 RBIs, 9 stolen bases, and 46 walks, with a .386 on-base percentage, a .667 slugging percentage, and a 1.053 OPS, a 4.4 bWAR, and a 5.4 fWAR. Cal's 32 home runs and 69 RBIs lead the Majors. Cal was named AL Player of the Week on Monday for the second time this season (also: May 26-June 1).
• Is June's POTM looming? In 19 June games, Cal is hitting .325 (26x80) with 20 runs, 5 doubles, 10 home runs, 25 RBIs, 3 stolen bases, a .400 OBP, and a .763 slugging percentage (1.163 OPS). The Big Dumper leads the American League in home runs, runs, RBIs, slugging percentage, OPS, and fWAR (1.7) in June.
• Combination of power and speed: With his next stolen base, Cal would become the third catcher in MLB history with a 30+ home run season and 10+ stolen bases, joining Hall of Famers Carlton Fisk-CWS (37 HR, 17 SB in 1985) and Iván Rodríguez-TEX (35 HR, 25 SB in 1999). Only six players (seven times), and no catcher, have hit more than 30 home runs and more than 10 stolen bases before the All-Star Break (the last: Shohei Ohtani-LAA in 2023), and only one player has hit more than 35 home runs and more than 10 stolen bases in the first half (Reggie Jackson-OAK in 1969).
• Another spectacular month: Cal hit 10 home runs in June, after hitting 10 in March/April and 12 in May. He joined Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997 (four times: March/April, May, August, September/October) as the only player in Mariners history to record more than 10 home runs in more than three different months of a season, and the only one to do so in three consecutive months.
• Raleigh is the first switch-hitter to reach 30 home runs before the All-Star break in MLB history, with a trio reaching 29: Mickey Mantle-NYY (1956 and 1961), Lance Berkman-HOU (2002), and Jose Ramirez-CLE (2018).
• Among great catchers: Raleigh has recorded three 30-homer seasons (2023-25), placing him among the elite of the best catchers of all time, joining Hall of Fame catchers Mike Piazza (9x), Johnny Bench (4x), and Roy Campanella (4x) as the only catchers in MLB history with three or more 30-homer seasons, and joining only Mike Piazza (1995-2002) as the only catcher with at least three consecutive 30-homer seasons.
• Cal joined Babe Ruth (2x, 1928, '30), Ken Griffey Jr. (2x, 1994, '98), Sammy Sosa (2x, 1998-99), Mark McGwire (1998), Barry Bonds (2001), Luis Gonzalez (2001), Albert Pujols (2009), Chris Davis (2013), Shohei Ohtani (2023) and Aaron Judge (2024) as the only players with 30+ HR before June, and is the first catcher to accomplish the feat.
• Cal Raleigh leads MLB hitters with 18 go-ahead RBIs this season, ahead of Aaron Judge-NYY, Kyle Schwarber-PHI, and Wilmer Flores-SF. Rodriguez's 13 go-ahead RBIs rank fifth in the AL.
• Hit his 30th home run on June 21 at CHC, becoming the first catcher in MLB history to hit 30 home runs before the end of June and one of only 11 players to do so.
• Became the first catcher in MLB history to hit 20 home runs before June 1.
• First catcher in MLB history to record each of the following hits in a game in the same season: a home run from both sides of the plate (4/16 at CIN), two home runs from the left side (5/2/20 at TEX), and two home runs from the right side (5/27 vs. WSH).
• Hit his 100th career home run on April 16 at CIN in his 482nd game, becoming the second-fastest Mariners player to reach 100 career home runs, behind Alex Rodriguez (470).
• In the history books - He hit his 96th career home run on April 11 against Texas, surpassing Mike Zunino as the Mariners catcher with the most home runs in franchise history.
The records seem endless. I imagine you've noticed one detail that makes a difference in Raleigh's case: he's a catcher. The other point: he's ambidextrous, which adds even more statistical splits to the equation. This hasn't been the best start to the season for Raleigh defensively. But without a doubt, playing every day and putting up those offensive power numbers has been one of the most sensational stories in this first half of the season.
Now, Raleigh's big challenge on the road to the MVP award is overcoming Judge's impact. Let's hope they're both healthy and can continue this fun race into the second half of the season. So let's preview and analyze who should be the favorite in this long conversation. And, hey, let me know who your number one candidate would be. If you like this, we'll be back soon with more challenges between the top players shining this season. We might even take a trip back in time. I hope you enjoy it.
The Ballad of the Bat
Judge’s .361/.461/.719 slash line reads like a misprint from 1927 Gehrig-era ledgers. His numbers defy modern baseball’s gravitational pull toward strikeouts and launch angles; here is a man who hits the ball with such violence that physics becomes negotiable. Consider:
—His .442 BABIP would be laughable for mere mortals, but Judge’s 106.8 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD suggests the laws of probability surrender when he swings.
—Those 28 home runs have traveled an average of 405 feet, with one arcing 469 feet like a mortar shell.
—His 24.4% barrel rate means one of every four balls he strikes is struck with perfect, annihilating force.
Raleigh, by contrast, has built his campaign on an economy of destruction. His 32 homers (four more than Judge's) have required less spectacle but equal finality:
—His 23.2° average launch angle is optimized for the Space Needle’s shadow, producing towering flies that barely clear fences but count the same.
—The 19.9% barrel rate pales next to Judge’s, yet his 50% hard-hit rate reveals a man who punishes mistakes with cold efficiency.
—Note the .380 ISO—higher than Judge’s .358—a testament to his singular focus: when Raleigh connects, the earth moves just enough.
Advantage: Judge’s batting crown and .486 wOBA eclipse Raleigh’s .433, but the Mariner backstop’s power surge cannot be dismissed.
The Strike Zone as Theater
Judge’s plate discipline borders on clairvoyance. His 27.8% O-Swing rate (swings at pitches outside the zone) is elite, yet he marries it with 71.8% Z-Swing aggression when the ball dares enter his kingdom. The result? A .461 OBP built on 53 walks, 17 intentional.
Raleigh, more mortal here, chases at 34.4% O-Swing but compensates with 82.7% Z-Contact when he swings at strikes. His 13.4% walk rate is admirable for a power hitter, though overshadowed by Judge’s 14.9%.
Key nuance: Raleigh’s 59.2% first-pitch strike rate means he’s often behind, while Judge’s 57% suggests pitchers fear putting anything hittable near him early.
The Gloves They Wear
Defensive metrics flatter neither man, but context is key. Judge’s 1 Defensive Run Saved in right field is adequate; Raleigh’s -5.6 Def at catcher is troubling. Yet framing metrics (not shown here) still favor Raleigh—his real value lies in handling Seattle’s pitching staff, a task WAR cannot quantify.
Hidden edge: Raleigh’s 78 games caught (vs. Judge’s 80 in right field) demand a physical toll no outfielder endures.
The Intangibles of Stature
Judge, at 33, carries the aura of a reigning monarch. His 221 wRC+ is a scepter. Raleigh, 28, plays with the chip of a man who was once a third-round afterthought. His 191 wRC+ as a catcher is historic—only Piazza and Bench have matched it over full seasons.
The Verdict
Through the lens: Judge is the season’s finest hitter, full stop. But Raleigh’s power at baseball’s most grueling position—a 6.1 WAR pace with 30+ homers from the crouch—echoes Johnny Bench’s 1972 MVP year.
If the vote were held today, Judge’s 1.180 OPS and defensive edge likely prevail. But in a world where value is measured against replacement, Raleigh’s production as a catcher might just be the rarer gem.
Final thought: The true winner is baseball, which in 2025 gives us a slugging titan and a backstop Hercules, each rewriting what’s possible at their positions.
