The Leadoff: The Matanzas Crocodiles are back — can they stay in the elite?
Less than a month ago, I wrote about the situations that were generating the worrying downward spiral of the Matanzas Crocodiles.
There were many concerns surrounding the Crocodiles' pitching. The inconsistent rhythm in the starting rotation and the usual breakdowns of the bullpen added to the offensive unproductivity. These were my last words in that piece from April 24, when we opened The Leadoff column:
The Leadoff: How much concern should the Crocodiles' downward spiral be concerned?
Well, happily for Crocodiles fans, the answers are coming in time: Matanzas is 8-2 in its last 10 games. After going 12-13 in the first third of the season, they went 15-10 in their second. They have won six games in a row, three of them between Tuesday and Thursday against the Leñadores de Las Tunas, third place in the standings.
This has been the Crocodiles' best moment so far in this 63rd National Series of Cuban baseball. Matanzas is back among the postseason contenders and, after sweeping Las Tunas for 36 runs in three games, the offensive awakening seems to be coming at the ideal time. Still, the Crocodiles will need more mastery of their pitching and consistency on defense.
Let's review the keys that could mark the Crocodiles' definitive takeoff as playoff contenders, and what remain the most pressing questions:
Contact and speed are marking the offensive breakout
They have not depended on power all the time. The offense is at a point of heat that has produced 94 runs over the last 10 games. In that period, catcher Andrys Pérez has returned to the lineup with three home runs and 14 RBIs. Remember third baseman Luis Sánchez, who had produced just 14 OPS+ in his first 91 plate appearances? Sánchez has hit a solid .450/.521/.500 line (1.021 OPS), with eight RBIs in his last 10 games.
Sánchez has backed up the best hitters in the Crocodiles' lineup, hitting .389 with runners in scoring position during the recent stretch we mentioned. That's a very explosive average, but now listen to this: Eduardo Blanco has driven in 11 of the last 18 runners he has found in scoring position. That frequency leads us to an unexpected average of .611.
Blanco has 10 runs scored and 14 RBIs in his last 10 games, producing an offensive line of .531/.583/.781 and a 1.364 OPS in 36 plate appearances. Yes, they look like video game numbers!
We will return to Blanco in a moment, because I believe that he along with José Amaury Noroña have been the Crocodiles' most valuable players this season. Continuing with the extravagant notes of the Matanzas hitters who are on a roll, comes Aníbal Media, who is averaging .424 OBP and has not struck out in his last 33 plate appearances.
The sometimes underrated Yariel Duque (1,079 OPS) is the third Crocodile hitter with at least 10 RBIs and 15 hits in the last 10 games. That has been a great offensive turnaround from Matanzas' top hitters, but the point I wanted to highlight here is how they have deployed speed on offense: the Crocodiles have stolen nine bases in 12 attempts with only three runners. José Amaury Noroña has stolen three in four attempts, José de Jesús Prens has stolen two in two attempts, and Yoisnel Camejo has stolen four in five attempts.
Returning to the Blanco-Noroña duo, it is fair to highlight that they have become the offensive heart of these Crocodiles. Noroña's combination of power and speed (he has hit 11 home runs and recorded 14 stolen bases in 15 attempts) has been unmatched this season. For his part, Blanco is back with another great year: he leads the team with 57 RBIs and has hit 10 home runs. His speed remains key, as does defense in center field,* although his range factor has taken a reasonable slight regression at 37 years old.
*After belonging to the defensive elite for several years, thanks to his arm power and ability to catch fly balls into the outfield, Blanco has fallen to eleventh place with 2.48 Range Factor among 15 qualified center fielders. The league average is 2.65 RF, so he has posted 93.5 RF+. The leader of the center fielders is the capital native who plays with Mayabeque, Yoasán Guillén, who accumulates 135 RF+.
The Crocodiles' lineup usually relies more on power than speed, but manager Armando Ferrer has taken advantage of his multiple options in the lineup. Matanzas put an average of 21 runners in scoring position during his first three games this week against the Las Tunas Leñadores pitchers. Four of them were for stolen bases, nine for singles and two for walks.
Discipline at the plate was a determining factor, especially in pitch selection. And, as we have also analyzed here, the speed on the bases maximized the offensive attack. For the final 25 games of the season, the Crocodiles will need the offense to keep producing runs at a high rate.
The new defensive adjustment has found encouraging solutions
Another key point has been the defense. In the absence of starting shortstop Erisbel Arruebarena, his usual substitute Moisés Esquerré (he was the leader of the hitters with an average of .439) and Yadil Mujica, Ferrer looked for options. The entry of shortstop Adrián Pérez has maintained the defensive balance in the Crocodiles' infield. Pérez, 22, has made an error in his last 10 games, and has participated in six of the 10 double plays recorded by Matanzas.
The Crocodiles' defense has improved compared to the second-third stretch when Arruebarena stopped playing, but the 12 errors they made in the last 10 games cost them 13 runs.
Why will the starting staff continue to be the driving force for pitching?
With the return of right-hander Renner Rivero, the Crocodiles hope to strengthen their starting rotation, but the challenge still seems complicated. After having his best season last year, left-hander Denis Quesada has recorded just three quality starts in 11 starts and is pitching to a 6.45 ERA. Quesada has allowed 10 home runs in 53 innings and a .948 OPS (as a starter) against 243 opponents. The rest of the starting rotation has combined for just 10 quality outings in 39 starts.
The poor performances of Matanzas' starters have caused almost daily wear and tear on the relievers, who have recorded 52.1% of the team's innings this regular season. However, that has been just one of the turning points in the Matanzas rotation debacle. The most worrying thing is the regression in the pitchers' dominance during the main game situations.
Let's look at the most notable breakdowns in the starting rotation and bullpen:
Game situation with a large lead: when the Crocodiles are winning by five or more runs.
—Pitchers have recorded the second highest walk rate at 16.8%.
—They have allowed the third-highest home run rate at 3.5%.
—Opponents have had the third-highest slugging average at .549.
Game situation under pressure: when the Crocodiles are pitching with the game tied, or have a one to three run lead on the scoreboard.
—They have allowed the fourth-highest batting average at .300.
—Opponents average them .392 OBP, the fourth highest in the league.
—18.5% of runners scored on them from second base, the third-highest run rate allowed in the league.
What reading should we make of all this?
I think it seems absolutely obvious: the great challenge for the Crocodiles' pitchers has been their lack of dominance in clutch situations. As the statistics show, they have not been consistent under pressure, but neither have they been consistent when the offense has provided seemingly decisive advantages.
So, as we corroborate here: the first key the Crocodiles need remains the dominance and durability of their starting pitchers. We know that taking a positive turn will be quite difficult without its main figures. That level of expectations has caused the probabilities of victories to fall on the impact of the Crocodiles' offensive-defense combination.
Will that formula be enough to remain in the elite? The Crocodiles have a third (25 games) of the regular season ahead of them to adjust for the playoffs.