⚾The Shift🔥 | Anatomy of a Regression

Diving Deeper into Adolis García's Offensive Decline

This Thursday, Adolis García went 1-for-4 in the Texas Rangers' 16-3 win over the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Adolis's hit was his eighth home run of the season, a three-run blast that gave them a 13-1 lead in the top of the sixth inning off left-handed reliever Joseph Wentz.

Putting his power aside for a few seconds, this was another little flash of hope Adolis needs in the batter's box: he drew two walks and didn't strike out. Yes, this was the full offensive line: 3-run HR, 2-walks, no strikeouts.

You're probably wondering how many games like that Adolis has logged in his career. And, well, maybe this will surprise you: Before Thursday, he had only collected two games of that magnitude. So now he has 3 of 695 career games combining at least one home run, multiple walks, and no strikeouts. We'll return to Adolis's plate discipline in a few minutes, as it was also his first home run with at least one baserunner on the road. The previous one was on September 25 of last year, a two-run homer off Brady Basso in Oakland.

Adolis's power has dropped considerably. In 247 plate appearances this season, his slugging percentage continues to trend downward: after dropping from .508 in 2023 to .400 last year, he's averaging .369.

But that's just one of the more concerning points we'll analyze in this edition of The Shift, as Adolis is barely walking (4.6 BB%, 55% lower than in 2023), and his ISO has practically been pulverized (.153 this year, a far cry from his career MLB average of .207). Now, here's a reason to be even more suspicious of this initial regression: Adolis is swinging harder than ever before (55%), and yet, when this should be a problem, we have another unexpected result. He's also making more contact than usual!

Let's look at some metrics:

I brought up Adolis's current comparison with the 2023 season, as it has been the best year of his career so far. As you'll see in the differences, Adolis has increased his swing rate against pitches outside the strike zone by 9.8%. He's hitting 2.1% more than he was hitting in 2023, and his contact in the zone has been just 0.2% lower.

So, these rates show that Adolis is chasing more pitches, both inside and outside the strike zone. But he's also hitting them more frequently. The obvious question we should be asking is, at what cost has his swing rate increased? And it's clear the price has been great: he's barely walking, his slugging percentage has dropped, and his fly balls are falling into the infield (he's hitting 17.2 IFFB%, the highest rate of his career) at an accelerated rate.

We understand Adolis's primary job in the Rangers' lineup: he has to crush baseballs. Hit them far and drive in runs. But if he were to do just that, he wouldn't be exploiting everything Adolis García can bring to the game. Everyone knows he can hit baseballs and get bombs. He can shine on the game's biggest stage, the playoffs. But Adolis can also be brilliant running the bases, playing defense, and utilizing his cannon arm.

This year, he has made seven of his nine steal attempts. However, he hasn't been as efficient running the bases. His 3.90-second 90-foot average between 2022 and 2023 dropped to 4.06 last year. This season, he's at 4.00, a bit better, but doesn't seem close to reestablishing himself as an elite, above-average runner.

In 2022, at age 29, Adolis averaged 47% on extra-base attempts and was successful at an 8% rate above the league average. This season, at age 32, that rate has dropped to -3%, the worst of his career. Still, there are plenty of moments where Adolis has shown that his speed can be a complement to his game.

However, as he heads into his age-34 season, it's clear that power is Adolis's primary tool to stay in the business. And that power doesn't just include home runs. Adolis also needs to regain his more functional approach of the past and start walking. It's not exactly about being less aggressive, but rather about stopping chasing pitches outside the strike zone.

On that note, his battle with fastballs has been the big issue. But before we get there, I want you to see some of what I've been researching this week. Take a look at this image, which shows Adolis hitting the Astros in the 2023 postseason on the left, and the stance he's using this season on the right.

There are three key points in the image:

1) Bat position: Adolis has the bat in a more upright position than in 2023, perhaps trying to narrow the angle of attack of his swing in the strike zone. He's achieved that point, as his angle of attack has dropped from 12° to 9°, but he's also lost from 50% (league average) to 61.8% in the ideal angle of attack.