The Twins' strategy didn't work: Can the Rangers stop José Abreu's swing?

Before José Abreu exploded for three home runs in his final two ALDS games against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field, there was a trend that set off alarm bells: Pitchers hadn't gotten him to miss even one swing.

They were fighting, literally. And they fell far short of establishing a viable point of attack inside or outside the strike zone. Bailey Ober threw the best of his repertoire (his slider and changeup) and, although he won both of his matchups against Abreu, he did not register a swing miss in Game 1. After facing Ober, Abreu had success against a slider from Kenta Maeda. He singled to left and gave the Astros a significant 4-0 lead in the bottom of the fifth inning.

Then, during his last plate appearance in Game 1, he walked Caleb Thielbar in the seventh.

In Game 2, Abreu was dominated three times by Twins ace Pablo Lopez and finished the night 0-for-4, but he didn't miss a single swing. Thus, Game 3 arrived at Target Field, where Abreu went 2-for-5 with two home runs and five RBIs. In three games, he had seen 52 pitches and missed only two swings, both against pitches outside the strike zone. And finally, in Game 4, he closed the series 2-for-4 with a clutch home run and no missed swings after seeing eight pitches.

In short, the Twins threw 86% first-pitch fastballs against Abreu. That was the first attack trend. In two-strike situations, they threw 50% sliders and 40% four-seam fastballs. But after Abreu led the Game 3 charge with two home runs and five RBIs, Minnesota pitchers reduced their use of the fastball to 50% on the first pitch.

They preferred to challenge Abreu with high speeds in decisive counts. They combined 51% between changeups (13%), sliders (13%), and sinkers (25%), leaving the use of the fastball at 49%. The Twins relied on the effectiveness of their pitchers. While they didn't have a staff with supersonic arms — they ranked 18th in fastball velocity — their arms allowed the lowest xBA (.243) in the entire league in 2023.

So, it was reasonable for them to try to impose their most dominant weapon at key moments. When pitchers gained a count advantage or reached two strikes, they suppressed much of the breaking pitches for pure fastballs and sinkers by more than 67%. However, Abreu destroyed the Twins' strategy: he hit three home runs, two of them in seven at-bats that ended with four-seam fastballs.

He also killed the sliders with a single and a home run in five at-bats. We're not done yet: in his only two appearances that were decided by a curveball, he hit a single and recorded a walk.

Now that we can see and analyze his 17 ALDS plate appearances more clearly, there's no other way to say it: Abreu crushed the Minnesota Twins' pitching. You know how he ruined the initial strategy when they tried to neutralize his swing with fastballs on the first pitches, and then tried to make him miss against the sliders. But here's another key point to consider. It's about how and where Abreu crushed the Twins' pitching. Let's examine this interesting heat graph:

Where are the swings and misses in the strike zone? They simply did not exist. And keep in mind that Abreu swung against 71% (22) of the 31 pitches he received in the strike zone. He continued to be aggressive and, unlike the regular season, he adjusted so that his hands were in time to devour any pitch.

What's Next? Let's look at some more trends:

Swings to pitches in the strike zone: 22

Swing and miss: 0

Swing in three-thirds of the strike zone:

Upper third: 10

Middle third: 9

Lower third: 3

Granted, increasing contact against pitches wasn't Abreu's only path to success. See here how he crushed them. His exit velocities, especially against pitches that are high and hit inside the strike zone:

To those averages, we can also add that Abreu hit four of his last seven balls put in play at 106 mph or more. Of course, based on each of those adjustments, the Rangers will establish their pitching strategy. And, if we are guided by Abreu's record against Texas pitchers during the regular season, expectations for another breakout skyrocket again: he hit three home runs and drove in 17 runs in 13 games, his highest performance against the opposing teams of the Astros in 2023.

Abreu recorded seven of those 17 RBI in the Astros' 12-3 victory on Sept. 6 at Globe Life Field, when he went 3-for-5 with two homers and a double — his only multi-homer game in all year.

Against left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who was announced by the Rangers to start Game 1 of the ALCS this Sunday, Abreu is 4-for-14 in his career. He has no extra bases or walks and has struck out two. Montgomery's key has been that, in nine of those 14 matchups, he has managed to take Abreu to two-strike counts.

So the challenge is set: starting this Sunday, we open another chapter of José Abreu in this postseason with the Houston Astros. The Cuban first baseman's dream of winning his first World Series ring continues. We'll see if his inspiration and adjustments at the plate will be enough to guide Houston's offense again.

For their part, the Rangers pitchers will draw up their strategy against each Astros batter, but they will undoubtedly pay special attention when they face the Cuban slugger duo of Yordan Álvarez and José Abreu, who bombed the Minnesota Twins.

The challenge is just beginning.

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