Three stories that could define Game 6

—Game 6 could be the end of this II Elite League, but that will depend on what the Hunters of Artemisa can do.

Will the Crocodiles of Matanzas win the title tonight at home? Or will the Artemisa Hunters force Game 7 at the Victoria de Girón stadium? Those are the big questions of the moment in the final of this II Elite Cuban Baseball League (LEBC).

The Crocodiles of Matanzas are one victory away from winning the title, but the Artemisa Hunters have a chance to come back. How difficult has it been to bounce back after coming into Game 6 down 3-2 in a final? Here are some interesting historical facts:

Finals that were defined in a Game 7

(National Series and Elite League Playoffs)

1. 33 SNB: VCL-IND

2. *38 SNB: SCU-IND

3. 41 SNB: HOL-SSP

4. *49 SNB: IND-VCL

5. 54 SNB: CAV-IJV

6. 55 SNB: CAV-PRI

7. 57 SNB: GRA-LTU

8. *61 SNB: GRA-MTZ

9. *I LEBC: AGR-POR

*As you can see in this ranking, only eight (42%) of the 19 finals that reached six challenges were defined in a Game 7. The majority (58%) have been finished in six games, although here is a point interesting: of the three comebacks that have been recorded, in two the visiting team has ended up winning the title. In both cases the Industriales team was involved, when they lost the 1999 final against the legendary “Aplanadora” from Santiago de Cuba at the Latinoamericano stadium. And, 11 years later, by completing the comeback against Villa Clara at the Augusto César Sandino stadium.

Of course, those are just some historic numbers, but what could really define the fate of Game 6 between Matanzas and Artemisa comes next. I tell you through these three stories that we should keep in perspective tonight:

1. Stop the unstoppable duo of the Crocodiles

The risk of facing the Matanzas Crocodiles lineup has been a latent trend for pitchers this postseason. No doubts about that. However, the big problem for the Hunters could be summed up in just two names: Yurisbel Gracial? Yordanis Samón? Maybe it was what we expected, but the duo Eduardo Blanco and Erisbel Arruebarena has been the great threat for Artemisa's pitchers. Gracial and Samón combined to hit eight of the 13 home runs that the Matanzas offense recorded against Las Tunas pitching during the Semifinal. Yes, Gracial has averaged a 1.111 OPS in 23 plate appearances in this final, but along with Samón, they have left 17 of the 19 runners who reached scoring position waiting in tow.*

*The big problem here comes from the inconsistency of Samón, who has not been able to hit extra bases in this final, has only one RBI, and is 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position. Of course, both could lead the Crocodiles' offense tonight, as they have in multiple games all season.

Ariel Sánchez, reaching first after a sacrifice bunt. Photo: Roberto Morejón/Jit.cu.

On the other hand, here is the key to the Crocodiles' success: in the team's three victories, between Blanco and Arruebarena they have driven in nine of the 14 runners they found in scoring position, producing for 64.3%! Two swings have made the difference in an impressive way: the rest of the Matanzas lineup has left on base 44 of the 47 runners who reached scoring position. Incredible but true. Crocodiles manager Armando Ferrer will probably maintain the strategy used in his last lineup, when he placed Arruebarena as the fifth hitter, followed by Blanco. Now you must be remembering some of those decisive turns:

Bottom of the fourth inning, Game 1: The Crocodiles trailed 3-1 when the inning began. Andrys Pérez sacrificed himself, and then Eduardo Blanco hit a single to left that drove in two runs to tie the score, 3-3.

Top of the fourth inning, Game 3: The Crocodiles trailed 3-1 when the inning began. Erisbel Arruebarena singled to left leading off the inning. And, then, he scored on another single to left by Andrys Pérez, in a continuous play where he took advantage of a fielding error by Denis Laza. Three pitches later, Eduardo Blanco hit a two-run home run that gave the Crocodiles a 4-3 lead.

Top of the seventh inning, Game 3: The game was tied at 4-4. Erisbel Arruebarena hit a home run through center field against reliever Israel Sánchez.

Top of the second inning, Game 5: Eduardo Blanco opened the scoring, 1-0, with an RBI single that sent Yordanis Samón home.

Top of the third inning, Game 5: After falling 0-2 against Geonel Gutiérrez, Erisbel Arruebarena managed to draw a bases-loaded walk, which gave the Crocodiles a 2-1 lead.

Top of the seventh inning, Game 5: Arruebarena reached base on a fly ball to short right field, which caused a collision between second baseman Raúl González and right fielder Luis González. On the play, Samón scored the Crocodiles' fourth run. And then Eduardo Blanco cleared the bases with a double to deep left-center. Matanzas took a definitive lead 6-1.

If the Hunters' pitchers had taken control of the game in some of those moments, the outcome almost certainly would have been different.

2. Trump cards

I'm sure both managers expect quality outings from their starters for Game 6, but here's what the odds show: RHP Yoel Mogena has lost both of his starts this postseason, allowing a .526 opponent average after facing 22 batters. Unlike his inconsistency, RHP Raymond Figueredo looked immense in Game 2, extending his start into the sixth inning with just 54 pitches.

Here is the effect caused by the pitches of the capital right-hander that became an insurmountable challenge for Mogena: putting out the first batter of the inning. Raymond did so during his first five innings, where he allowed just one hit — a single by Rusney Castillo in the second inning. Mogena's decline comes from his start in Game 3 of the Semifinal against the Leñadores de Las Tunas. All three of his leadoff batters reached base, and the result was devastating: he pitched only 2 ¹/₃ innings and allowed six runs. It is true that Game 6 will be “do or die” for the Hunters, who expect another pitching gem from Raymond Figueredo, but the Crocodiles will need Mogena to overcome the pressure.*

*In any case, if the Crocodiles' starter is Renner Rivero, Ferrer will evaluate his presentation, since he has not pitched in 13 days.

In any case, I still think that the bullpen will have the greatest weight in the decision of Game 6, unless Raymond or Mogena break that theory by launching a gem on par with the unforgettable duel that Erlys Casanova starred in in Game 4. And when It's about the bullpen, the Crocodiles have the advantage. In their three successes, the duo Frank Luis Medina and Armando Dueñas Jr. have been enough: in five appearances combined, they have held the Hunters to one run over nine innings. Yes, nine as relievers!

The bad news here for Hunters manager Yulieski González is that he will be without Liván Moinelo. And, after his departure, as expected, the bullpen has been vulnerable. The situational pitchers have not been able to stop the Matanzas lineup. Of 18 inherited runners, they have scored six, and all of them are accounted for by right-handers Israel Sánchez (2 of 4) and Osdany Rodríguez (3 of 4), who have seen 5 of the 8 runners they inherited from other pitchers score. The rest of the bullpen has allowed just 1-for-10.

3. Now or never: the moment of the clutch has arrived

For an elimination game, getting runners on base will be key but, as often happens in decisive moments, timely hitting will dictate the sentence. And that is an issue that the Artemisa Hunters have not been able to resolve in their last two games, although they won Game 4 thanks to the masterful performance of Erlys Casanova. However, if we analyze the Hunters' losses, it is easy to find one of the main flaws: the lineup has driven in only 7 of the 31 runners who reached scoring position. Let's see a small breakdown:

Production with runners in scoring position

Loss No. 1, Game 1: 11-5

Loss No. 2, Game 3: 11-2

Loss No. 3, Game 5: 5-0

The last two losses have been the most critical, due to the low production of the lineup: they left 14 of the 16 runners they placed in scoring position without driving. Another big difference here between the loss is that the Hunters managed to score three runs with two outs during Game 1, but in Games 3 and 5 they only accumulated one. Simply put, the problem has been timely hitting, and we can summarize that for one simple reason: in Game 1, the Hunters reached the first batter of the inning only twice, but scored five runs, three of them after two outs. In Games 3 and 5, they reached the first batter of the inning in eight of the 18 innings. Initially, that effectiveness generated high scoring probabilities, but the Crocodiles' infield neutralized the attack by creating seven double plays.

The offensive awakening of Luis González, Dayán García and Denis Laza is part of the great boost that the Hunters need, and the recovery of Frederich Cepeda, who has made a great effort playing with a sprain since this final began.*

*Laza has left five runners in scoring position and has no RBIs against the Crocodiles. González is 4 for 19 (.211), but has had an 0-for-11 slump since Game 3. And, Dayán, one of the most consistent hitters in the history of the Hunters, has not been able to hit extra bases in 22 appearances to the plate during this final.

For this story to change, the Hunters lineup needs to organize several quality at-bats, and be more efficient in baserunning. Discipline at the plate will be essential to getting runners on base, but then, if the timely hit does not come, dreams of a comeback will never become a reality.