Under the spotlight
For more than one team, Game 3 could be the key in the Division Series.
Well, what an exciting start to the week in baseball! As with the National League Division Series, there were also two ties in the American League!
The Tigers and Royals bounced back from their respective losses in Game 1.
The Tigers and Guardians saw eight scoreless innings go by with a combined nine hits. Steven Kwan made a brilliant catch that seemed to offer enough oxygen to the Cleveland Guardians in the top of the eighth. But then the unthinkable happened at Progressive Field. On a 2-2 count, Emmanuel Clase threw a 94 mph slider into the middle of the strike zone. Pinch-hitter Kerry Carpenter crushed it and hit a sensational three-run homer that gave the Detroit Tigers the lead.
It was the first home run by a Tigers pinch-hitter in history, and just the third home run Emmanuel Clase has allowed against 280 batters faced—combining his regular season and this postseason records.
Later in the night, Salvador Perez's solo homer off left-hander Carlos Rodon sparked a decisive four-run rally for the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. (0-for-5, three strikeouts) and Vinnie Pasquantino (0-for-4, three strikeouts) finished Game 2 of the ALDS 0-for-9 with a combined six strikeouts. We'll get to Witt Jr.'s slump later in a few words. Still, the Royals got back on track with a big four-hitter from leadoff man Maikel Garcia (4-for-5).
George Brett was getting the thrill of the Royals' runs in box nine at Yankee Stadium. At one point, he stood up and motioned for the runner on second to come home on veteran Tommy Pham's single. Garrett Hampson also added an RBI single, and Yuli Gurriel became the first Royals hitter with four runs scored in the first two games of a Division Series.*
*But that's just one of many statistics that sometimes we don't even imagine can be quantified. I mean, the great work that Yuli Gurriel is doing at the plate goes beyond how important his four runs scored have been—44% of the Royals' runs in these playoffs.
Left-hander Cole Ragans didn't have his best night. He pitched four innings of 87 pitches against 19 opponents, allowed one earned run, struck out five and walked four. But the Royals' bullpen controlled the game and the boos from the fans at Yankee Stadium, leaving the Yankees with one run in four innings.
That's what I wanted to write about during this postseason. We have plenty of time. It's something that many of us often wonder about. How will the players who have been in the spotlight for each team throughout the postseason perform? We almost always have several players per team. But there is one who inevitably tends to be the main face.
There is Aaron Judge as the cornerstone of the powerful Yankees who will seek their first World Series since 2009. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the surprising Royals. You already know that the Detroit Tigers have the best pitcher in baseball this year, left-hander Tarik Skubal. The Guardians need Jose Ramirez to take the reins of the lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. is bringing the heat and leadership that the San Diego Padres expect. Shohei Ohtani has already made a splash in his postseason debut, but the Dodgers need to make a difference as a team.
Time. That’s one of the main problems for teams in October, that they sometimes don’t have enough time to make the adjustments they need. And the point here is that, although baseball is a collective game, teams undoubtedly need the contribution and impact of their main stars. That hasn’t been the case so far with many of them. Instead, here’s one of my main questions about it: How much does the spotlight influence? How much pressure does it really put on the superstars of the game?
Obviously, it’s October. And we’re all clear that it’s time to “win or die.” But the luck for many lineups and pitching rotations is that, in October, unexpected heroes also tend to appear. The Detroit Tigers had one of those heroes in Cuban Andy Ibáñez to trample the Astros with a surprise sweep in the American League Wild Card Series. And on Monday, Kerry Carpenter showed up, with a home run that could turn the tide in the Tigers' favor when they return home for the first time this postseason.
Let's get to baseball: I wrote about what the Yankees expect from Judge, Bobby Witt Jr.'s slump, a preview of the NLDS, and, as promised, I dedicated a few words to Luis Arráez's brilliance at the plate. If you haven't subscribed yet, you can do so through this nifty button.
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The Judge Case
Getting back to the expected impact of each team's top hitters, Aaron Judge's mismatch sounds alarming. Judge is 1-for-7 with four strikeouts. His only hit was an 86 mph ground ball single to left field in Game 2. Of course, we know this is Judge, one of the most powerful hitters in baseball, and at any moment his swing can explode. But it's October, and the Yankees need their swing adjustment process to happen immediately.
When I wrote 1-for-7 with four strikeouts, did you think the same thing I did? Yeah, well, that's reasonable. Judge has been out six of his seven at-bats. It's still a small sample size. 67% have been on strikeouts. The rest of the time Judge put the ball in play. Here's what I was getting at: You can go 1-for-7 in a different way. Maybe, say, by hitting hard. But Judge isn't offering much hope so far.
Look, 11 of Aaron Judge's first 23 swings this postseason start have ended in swings and misses. That means he has a 48% whiff rate, the highest of any hitter who has taken at least 20 swings this postseason start—in a big effort to outdo himself, the Tigers' Jake Rogers is 12-for-25 swings and misses, to match Judge at 48%. In his postseason career, Judge has struck out 70 times in 46 games and has the sixth-lowest batting average (.208) in history among qualified hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. He's not that far off from Martin Maldonado (.169), the worst hitter on the list.
It really does seem alarming, but we can't forget that October baseball is very different than the regular season. Joe Morgan was one of the great hitters of his generation, hitting a mind-boggling .182 in 222 plate appearances during the postseason. Jim Thome was a relentless home run hitter with outsized power, but he hit just .211 in the postseason.
Thome's career postseason numbers are pretty similar to what Judge has now:
Judge: 207 PA, .208/.311/.449/.760, 13 HR, 25 RBI
Thome: 267 PA, .211/.312/.448/.760, 17 HR, 37 RBI
Aside from the 60 PA difference between Thome and Judge, I just backed up my suspicion with a quick calculation: Thome drove in a run every 7.2 plate appearances. Judge has done it every 8.3. Those 13 homers from Judge with 25 RBIs seemed like too little production to me. Judge has hit seven solo homers. Still, two of the homers have provided a tie for the Yankees. And five have put the Yankees ahead by at least one run. Of his 25 playoff RBIs, Judge has recorded 20 by way of homers. More often than not, those homers have been timely. So the Yankees badly need Judge to correct his swinging mistakes.
Checking on Bobby Witt Jr.
The other star who hasn't hit his stride in this ALDS start is Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. After leading the majors with a .332 batting average, Witt Jr. has started his postseason career 0-for-10 with four strikeouts in the ALDS. Mo Vaughn in 1995 had been the only hitter 0-for-10 with at least four strikeouts (five) to start the ALDS. Vaughn couldn't bounce back against Cleveland pitching and finished 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts. Obviously, the Royals are hoping Witt Jr. gets healthy as soon as possible, but here's the biggest concern:
Whiffs/Pitches
Against Fastballs: 3-for-11
Against Cutters: 2-for-9
Against Sinkers: 2-for-7
Against Sliders: 3-for-6
Against Changeups: 1-for-4
Sweepers: 0-for-1
Witt Jr. has 11 swings and misses with 38 swings this postseason. He's recorded at least two swings and misses against four of the six types of pitches he's seen against Orioles and Yankees pitchers.