What Are We Calling Talent?
Is Talent Enough to Succeed in MLB? An Analysis of Miguel Vargas and the Pursuit of Consistency
We’ve all experienced it. Over the years of following baseball, we have witnessed countless talented players. Some make it to the majors, the pinnacle of baseball. Of those who reach the major leagues, some manage to showcase their talent for an extended period. Others only shine for a while. And, consequently, some become disappointments who never truly reach their potential. One key point I want to highlight here is that when we talk about talent, we are referring to what would mathematically be only a part of the equation.
In baseball, beyond having a great or limited amount of talent, results are even more important. I have been reflecting on this while reviewing the last 25 plate appearances of Cuban player Miguel Vargas. There’s no doubt the kid has talent and determination. I’ve watched him play in Cuba since he was nine years old. Later, I witnessed his debut with the Industriales at 15 in the National Series, managed by his father, Lázaro Vargas, one of the great stars of the Capital’s Azules.
At 25 years old, Vargas completed the best hitting streak of his major league career last night. He recorded eight consecutive games with a hit, including a double, two home runs, six RBIs, four walks, and a slash line of .448/.515/.690/1.205. If we project this streak over 162 games, the numbers would be ready to compete for the American League MVP. It would look like this: 41 home runs, 122 RBIs, 81 walks, and only 61 strikeouts. However, back to reality, it’s clear that the average is very distant from the results we see daily whenever Miguel Vargas steps to the plate. Just comparing his stationary OPS at two recent timeframes:
Last seven days: 1.156
Last 28 days: .673
Power isn’t something that has stood out for Vargas, and, likely, it will never become a tool for remaining in the MLB. So, if power isn’t the path, Vargas needs to harness his talent and find a formula to shine. His plate discipline hasn't been consistent either, and a poor on-base percentage of .305 tells that story. Now, the big question still lingers: What do we call talent? Is Miguel Vargas still considered a talented player? Or has the time come for him to show a bit more?