Previous view: No. 5, Avispas de Santiago de Cuba

Unlike last year, this team from Santiago de Cuba could be a contender.

In the last Elite League, the Avispas de Santiago de Cuba finished with a 15-25 record, ten games away from playing at .500. They were the worst defensive team, with a percentage of .954. Of their 71 errors in 40 games, 80% cost them runs.

The offense was also a mess. The big hit just wasn’t coming: 77% of the runners who reached scoring position were left waiting for a hit-in. Nothing worked. How much will that story change? Let’s dig deeper with our second installment of this “preview” column.

5. Santiago de Cuba (15-25) in the Cuban Elite Baseball League—2023-2024 season

Manager: Eddy Cajigal.

Reinforcements chosen by position: C (1), 2B (1), 3B (1), OF (1), SP (2), RP (4).

Reinforcements chosen by round

1- José Amaury Noroña (MTZ), LF/RF

2- Jeison Martínez (MAY), 2B

3- José Ignacio Bermúdez (MAY), SP/RP

4- Yasmany Velázquez (GTM), C

5- Uberleidys Estévez (HOL), SP/RP

6- Joel Tejeda (GTM), RP

7- Jesús Quintana (HOL), RP

8- Luis Ángel Sánchez (MTZ), 3B/SS

9- Yoandro Daudinot (GTM), RP

10- Yadier Garay (IJV), RP

Santiago de Cuba needs to support the pitcher with a better defense than last year in the Elite League. Photo: Calixto N. Llanes.

What were they looking for?: Strengthen the pitching staff and four key positions: a catcher, two infielders, and an outfielder. The script was reasonable given the team's record during last year's Elite League: they scored just 4.3 runs per game, while the pitching and defense debacle allowed an average of 5.8. The result was a 37.5 win percentage, which, to be fair, seems equivalent to the team's dismal collective performance.

Main strengths after strengthening?: We'll talk about the offense in a moment. Let's start with the pitching, as the starting rotation will be able to expand to six pitchers, including veterans Alberto Bisset and Danny Betancourt, Wilber Reyna, Yosiel Serrano, Osvaldo Acuña and left-hander Uberleydis Estévez. We shouldn't rule out the possibility of adding right-handers José Ignacio Bermúdez and Jesús Enrique Pérez to the rotation either. Cajigal will have seven pitchers who registered at least nine starts in the last National Series. This will be key because the Avispas will play 14 games in the previous 17 days of March.

In April, the team has scheduled 24 games in 30 days.

With a rotation of six starters, the first five would pitch in at least three starts. And there are still arms to reinforce the bullpen, depending on the plan and the use of several starters as relievers. Jaime Pelegrín, Jesús Quintana, and Yoandro Daudinot are projected among the relievers who could pitch multiple innings, while Joel Tejeda (5) and Yadier Garay (8)—they combined for 13 saves in the last 63rd National Series—would be in charge of closing the games.

Now let's take a look at the offense. Cajigal got off to a good start during his selections in the first two rounds. His first reinforcement was the outfielder of the Cocodrilos, José Amaury Noroña, MVP of the last 63rd National Series. And then he chose Mayabeque Hurricanes second baseman Jeison Martinez.

With two moves, Cajigal reinforced the top of the lineup, as well as two key positions. He added power and speed with Noroña—he was a “15-15” hitter: he hit 20 homers and stole 17 bases last year—and plate discipline from Jeison. Last season, Jeison posted a .480 OBP and struck out in just 5.7% of his 333 plate appearances. Pitchers couldn’t avoid contact with his swing, and Jeison was a regular presence on the bases.

Before asking for José Ignacio Bermúdez in the third round, Cajigal was already putting together what could be his Opening Day lineup. For the level of pitching in the league, the variations sound interesting: Cajigal could put Francisco Martínez back in as lead-off, followed by Jeison Martínez, Yoelquis Guibert, and Yoel Yanqui.

Even without Guibert, the entry of Noroña and Yanqui strengthens the outfield, and the Avispas will also have Luis Orlando Veranes, José Luis Gutiérrez, and the reinforcement Luis Ángel Sánchez for more lineup options.

Here is the big difference between the capacity of this Avispas team if we compare it with last year's lineup:

On-base percentages in the past 63rd National Series

Francisco Martínez, .441

Jeison Martínez, .480

Yoelquis Guibert, .492

Yoel Yanqui, .523

José Amaury Noroña, .489

It seems absurd*, but they all ended up averaging above .440 OBP! If we assume that those percentages should drop somewhat in the upcoming Elite League, it seems difficult for everyone to move away from a scale between .380 and .400.

*Before continuing to offer you details about the overrated Cuban astronomical offense, I wanted to tell you that less than two weeks ago I finished a personal investigation on the Winter Leagues. I started with the last 10 years. I did this work at some point in the last two years with advanced reports from the LMB.

If you are a faithful follower of the summer or winter baseball circuit, what I will tell you should not surprise you: the level of pitching is impressive. It is what it really should be in baseball: the starting point for success or at least the perspective to make a team successful. In LIDOM, for example, a hitter with an average of .245 could be considered superior to the replacement player. You might be surprised by a positive WAR even with that low average, especially since WAR does not depend on the batting average or on a single statistic per se.

J. C. Escarra destroyed the league and took the batting title averaging .363 with the Águilas Cibaeñas. The next hitter who averaged over .300 was another “aguilucho,” first baseman Aderlin Rodríguez, who ended up hitting .323.

That is where the .300 hitters ended.

The pitching talent continues to be devastating in LIDOM. Listen to this: pitchers struck out 2,246 opponents and walked 1,067. That means they got a rate of 2.1 strikeouts per walk.

Watching the offensive slashes in Cuban baseball is hilarious. On the other hand, the outlook for the Elite League is very different. The Avispas now look like they have better hitters to compete with. They can alternate with a different lineup against left-handed and right-handed pitchers.

If Jeison starts as lead-off against right-handed pitchers, then Cajigal could have three left-handers in a row: Martinez, Guibert, and Yanqui in the second, third, and fourth batting positions. If the projections in the on-base percentages hold, Jose Amaury Noroña, Eduardo Garcia, and Euclides Perez would be in charge of being the “base clean-up guys” in the middle of the lineup.

Another position the Santiago de Cuba strengthened was catcher, after selecting Guantanamo catcher Yasmany Velazquez in the fourth round. Shortstop Maikol Poll and Velazquez will be the guardians of the back end of the lineup. Last year, Velazquez posted an OPS-plus of just 78.

That offensive demise seemed unexpected, as Velazquez slashed .288/.434/.358 in 85 plate appearances playing for the Crocodiles in last year's Elite League. He drove in 13 runs in 31 games and hit .324 with runners in scoring position.

What could still raise questions: The Avispas' defense remains the most concerning point—although the pitching rotation will have several challenges ahead. That said, the addition of Jeison Martinez as second baseman was key. Jeison was the second baseman with the lowest percentage of hits allowed among qualified fielders. The opposition averaged just .263 when a ball was put into play at their position. In that regard, Maikol Poll was fourth in the league with 33.5% of hits allowed. But Euclides Perez finished eighth in the ranking among third basemen.

The batters registered a hit rate of 34%, while the league averaged 35%. The point here goes beyond errors, which are hit balls. Through the range factor, we cannot see the problem of Euclides and most of the fielders in Cuban baseball either. But with hit probabilities, the margin of error is usually smaller. What Santiago de Cuba and other teams need is for their infielders and outfielders to be able to reduce the probability of their opponents hitting. To be able to cover an increasingly greater range. And the other common deficiency is that the fielders make more tactical errors than physical ones.

Santiago de Cuba is going to need great support from the defense so that its pitchers can advance in the game. On many occasions, and this happens frequently in Cuban baseball, a tactical error ends up causing a defeat. As I said before, each team will play 14 games in the first 17 days from Opening Day. A false start could be fatal for aspirations to be contenders in a short 40-game regular season.